Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 090146
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
846 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILC095-090215-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-090509T0215Z/
KNOX IL-
846 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR KNOX COUNTY...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HENDERSON...OR 6 MILES
NORTH OF GALESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
WATAGA...ONEIDA...KNOXVILLE...ALTONA...VICTORIA...DAHINDA...SNAKE DEN
HOLLOW AND WILLIAMSFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9009 4115 8999 4074 9000 4086 9046
      4109 9045 4115 9045 4116 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 277DEG 36KT 4104 9037

$$

CHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

MAIN CONCERN IS ON DEPARTING VORTEX TONIGHT. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND...DESPITE
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS C IL ON MONDAY. A MORE ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GEN AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE. WILL
LEAN TWRD THE GFS MORE CONCISE PRECIP TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT TO WED
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF SPANS OUT PRECIP FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THAT SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A VIGOROUS MESO-VORTEX PASSING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
PUT DOWN 100+ MPH WINDS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE RAIN SHIELD ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU REFORMING IN THE N HALF OF OUR
CWA WHERE THE SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...SO THAT ARE WILL BE
READY FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA
PASSES BY TO OUR N. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FAR N TONIGHT...WITH
A NARROW BORDER OF SLIGHT CHC DOWN TO PIA AND BMI AND HOOPSTON.

WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NE FRINGE
OF OUR CWA.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE ON OUR SW DOORSTEP BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRUSH OUR SW ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW AREA. BY MONDAY
MORNING...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE CLEAR OF OUR AREA TO THE SE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP MONDAY DRY...AS THE N STREAM JET LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR W
CWA...AS WAA FLOWS AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS OUT OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUES NIGHT...WITH WED AND
WED NIGHT BEING OUR BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURS FOR NOW.

SHIMON

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009...FOR THE 00Z TAFS

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO PIA AND BMI. SHORT PERIODS OF IFR VIS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS...WITH IFR CIGS LESS LIKELY. SPI HAS A CHANCE AT
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VIS IN THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. STORM CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE NE OF OUR
CWA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z FOR BMI/CMI.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FOR SPI/DEC.

MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN...BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 15Z...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AT TIMES BY 18Z.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-091215-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD FROM HENRY DOWNSTREAM. A
SLOW FALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-091215-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-091215-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE WABASH RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD FROM TERRE HAUTE DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW FALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HUETTL