Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SURFACE-BASED STORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
SPI...WITH ONE CELL EXHIBITING MINI-SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A
WHILE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TYPE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING BETWEEN BEARDSTOWN AND EFFINGHAM...BUT ANYTHING SEVERE
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. OLDER ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER IOWA...AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE A DECENT
SHOT OF MAKING IT INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HANDLE EVENING  ORDING WITH SCATTERED AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN HAVE CONDITIONAL CHANCE OR LIKELYS LATER ON.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT AS IT IS ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE WEST ON MONDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ALMOST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 100 WILL BE LIKELY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THEREFORE WILL
LET ANY HEAT ADVISORIES BE ISSUED IN THE MORNINGS FOR THE APPLICABLE
AFTERNOONS INSTEAD OF HAVING ADVISORIES DURING ALL HOURS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELOCATING SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS PERIOD
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNDAY. AS THE FLOW
OVER ILLINOIS BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AROUND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT STALLS OUT AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES. IRREGARDLESS...WILL
HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WED NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EVERYWHERE THU...THEN LOWER POPS AGAIN FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE FLATTER RIDGE AND POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FA...ESP FOR NRN TERMINALS. CIGS MOSTLY
ABOVE 5K FT...WITH EXCEPTIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS...DROPPING AS LOW AS
1800 FT. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT SCT TS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF THUNDER ONCE THIS NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH BY 22Z WILL BE VERY THIN...AND LITTLE MORE THAN VCTS IN TAF
FOR NOW. KEEPING VCSH AFTER 06Z FOR HINTS OF ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DOING A RATHER POOR JOB OF SOLVING THE
PROBLEM...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE. THREAT OF REDUCED VSBYS
WILL BE LOCAL WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ENHANCING LLVL MOISTURE.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-221100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 55. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...BUT THOSE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER...FROM HAVANA
AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM...THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE SPOON RIVER AT
LONDON MILLS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM TODAY.

ILZ038-042>046-051>053-055>057-063-221100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-PIATT-SANGAMON-VERMILION-
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054-061-062-066>068-071>073-221100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
512 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             4 SSE GILA              39.06N 88.24W
06/21/2009  M0.88 INCH       JASPER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
523 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             4 NNW NEWTON            39.04N 88.19W
06/21/2009  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 MILES NNW OF NEWTON, IL

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
540 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             2 SE NEWTON             38.97N 88.14W
06/21/2009  M1.75 INCH       JASPER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IS 2 MILES SE OF NEWTON, IL.

&&

AEJ

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