Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX GOING AS IS UNTIL 7 PM AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE HOVERING AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE
RESULTED IN ERODING THE CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AT ABOUT 850 MB.
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME ILL-DEFINED
AS OF LATE...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AN ARC OF DEEPER
CUMULUS/CBS FROM GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL
THIS EVENING.

THE MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TOWARD 06Z AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA PUSHES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. UPSCALE GROWTH
IN THE STORMS BETWEEN DES MOINES AND KANSAS CITY IS LIKELY WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER MODE LIKELY BEING A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

BY 06Z...THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST MOVING INTO GALESBURG...
HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BY THEN SHOULD BE RACING INTO
INDIANA. SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE
MAIN FRONT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF. SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME...THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND REDUCE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES.
MOISTURE WILL BE RICH BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY
WARM WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENSIVE CAP OVER MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...BUT THE LOW CHANCE/LOW AERIAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS CANADA AND EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT.

04

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

FOCUS ON TAF FORECASTS IS PRIMARILY THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SQUALL
LINE EXTENDING FROM KBMI TO NEAR KBLV AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AND WILL AFFECT KCMI INITIALLY. SECOND WEAKER LINE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40
KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORMS. VFR CONDITIOSN LARGELY
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO AROUND 5 MILES AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE.

GEELHART

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ049>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ027-036-040-041-047-048-201200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MASON-MENARD-SCHUYLER-
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOME MINOR RENEWED RISES WILL OCCUR ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND
THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
SPOON RIVER AT LONDON MILLS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ILZ028>031-037-038-042>046-201200-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-PIATT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ILZ049>053-201200-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD FROM HAVANA AND DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ILZ054>057-061-201200-
COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-201200-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
755 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIDELL                  39.91N 87.82W
06/19/2009                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
758 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S TUSCOLA             39.75N 88.28W
06/19/2009                   DOUGLAS            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN TUSCOLA AND ARCOLA.

&&

AEJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
819 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE INDIANOLA          39.90N 87.70W
06/19/2009                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WHOLE BARN DESTROYED, TREES UPROOTED.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
830 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOWEAQUA                39.63N 89.02W
06/19/2009                   SHELBY             IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE TREE LIMBS DOWN BLOCKING SOME ROADS. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.53N 89.17W
06/19/2009  M2.08 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

AEJ