River Flood Warning 50, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND INCONSISTENCIES THROUGHOUT THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE MAIN THEME WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A
STEADY FLOW OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD C IL. TOUGH CALL
ON TIMING OF PRECIP...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHC AND SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR CWA IN MOST PERIODS. ONE CONSISTENT
DRY PERIOD SEEMS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...IF WE WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM...WE
WOULD HAVE PRECIP IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS C IL THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES GOING FOR THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ENDING
FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT
CHANCES OF THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY EVENING...SO WILL
JUST HV SHOWERS IN THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF WANT TO SPIT OUT
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS OF A DRY DAY BASED
ON GFS/SREF/CANADIAN GLOBAL.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SWIRL ON SATELLITE OVER N NEVADA/S IDAHO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NW IL. ENOUGH AGREEMENT HAS DEVELOPED THAT WE
ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN IN THE NW CWA FRI NIGHT...AND IN THE NE
CWA FOR SAT MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE ADDED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORN FOR TREND PURPOSES...IN CASE THE
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE CHANGES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP RAIN SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM/SREF DRY
US OUT. WENT WITH THE DRIER TREND...DUE TO SUBSIDENT MOTIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

ON SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF CONTINUE A WET TREND WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAIN BY 00Z. THE OTHER TWO ARE
MUCH LESS. THE NAM IS DRY ALL DAY. WENT WITH AT LEAST SOME CHC
POPS IN THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...AND KEPT THAT GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH POINT TOWARD A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX DEVELOPING JUST N OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A BREAK IN THE ACTION SHOULD DEVELOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE. 1018MB HIGH
PRESSURE N OF IL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH FOR 18 HOURS. BY LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM
MISSOURI. WENT WITH CHC POPS IN THE SW CWA MONDAY...AND EXPANDED
THE CHC POPS NORTH INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PUT A FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS IN NE IOWA AND NW IL BY THAT TIME.

ON TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT N ACROSS C IL...PER THE
ECMWF...OR LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE EAST INTO C IL...PER THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH CHANCE
POPS EVERYWHERE IN OUR CWA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WENT WITH THE ECMWF TREND OF LIFTING THE
FRONT N OF OUR CWA...AND ONLY PUT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN OUR N CWA.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...WE KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS OUR N CWA WED THROUGH THURS.

SHIMON

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1231 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

VORT MAX NOW TRIGGERING STORMS JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SUN AHEAD OF THE MAX TO GET
THE STORMS GOING. TEMP GROUPS IN TAFS FOR THE STORMS. AFTER THE
STORMS MOVE EAST WITH VORT MAX TODAY...MVFR CIGS WITH BE THE RULE
AS PLENTY OF CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...CLEARING
COMES IN AND THIS SHOULD SET STAGE FOR FOG AND IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. WENT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TNGT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS.

GOETSCH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-121230-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
336 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT HAVANA AND BEARDSTOWN INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-121230-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
336 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH
SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS INTO INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHIMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ067-068-071>073-112015-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
222 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...LAWRENCE...RICHLAND...
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STEPHEN FORBES STATE
PARK TO SAILOR SPRINGS TO CALHOUN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SAILOR SPRINGS...
  SUMNER...
  OLNEY...
  FLORA...
  BRIDGEPORT...
  NOBLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSKALOOSA...HELENA...OLNEY NOBLE
AIRPORT AND BILLETT.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3870 8753 3861 8765 3861 8810 3868 8868
      3890 8867 3895 8755 3883 8755 3877 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 270DEG 14KT 3874 8866 3875 8832
          3864 8796

GOETSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ073-112045-
LAWRENCE-
249 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. FRANCISVILLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT AND BILLETT.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3857 8788 3875 8778 3881 8754 3881 8751
      3879 8750 3874 8750 3871 8751 3868 8755
      3867 8758 3864 8762 3860 8761 3857 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 269DEG 20KT 3859 8777

GOETSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ066>068-071-072-112130-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-RICHLAND-
329 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM...
SOUTHERN JASPER...WESTERN CRAWFORD AND WESTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 327 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WATSON TO OMEGA...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  IOLA...
  BIBLE GROVE...
  XENIA...
  LOUISVILLE...
  BOGOTA...
  INGAHAM...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MASON...ELLIOTSTOWN...HORD...
OSKALOOSA...LATONA AND NEWTON LAKE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3861 8870 3890 8870 3903 8857 3897 8793
      3860 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 290DEG 23KT 3895 8854 3871 8881

GOETSCH

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