River Flood Warning 44, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 141 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING...AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.

06Z ANALYSIS SHOWS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FROM
EARLIER IN THE EVENING NOW WEAKENING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THANKS TO 1028MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

00Z 16 MAY GFS DID NOT ADEQUATELY LATCH ONTO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
DRIVING EARLIER CONVECTION AND IS THEREFORE ABOUT 6 HOURS TOO
SLOW WITH THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT PRECIP AREA. NAM-WRF APPEARS TO
HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ACCELERATION OF APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED CLOSEST TO ITS SOLUTION...RESULTING IN A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 DURING THE MORNING.

SKY COVER WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE TODAY...AS CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE 30S.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF MID/LOW CLOUDINESS IS NOTED AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM UP BACK SIDE OF FRONT AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. BASED ON NAM-WRF RH PROFILES AND
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS...HAVE OPTED TO START THE DAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE BOARD. CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN IN
RECENT DAYS. UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING NW WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS IOWA ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35MPH...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THESE GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY. DESPITE STRONG CAA AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...WILL GENERALLY GO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS TODAY...THINKING THAT STRONG MAY SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MITIGATE THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. WILL GO WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING...WILL BE A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT...AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...CREATING AN ENHANCED BAND OF MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. RESULTING PARTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RATHER TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST SETTING UP...WITH A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND COMING UP BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE NAM-WRF/GFS/ECMWF TO SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TAKES FRONT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN KILX CWA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING IT
BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
A CHANCE TO RETURN NORTHWARD DUE TO PREVIOUS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SO DO NOT THINK RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. MODELS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LATTER PERIODS...AS 00Z 16
MAY GFS NOW EXHIBITS STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...MUCH LIKE THE 12Z 15 MAY ECMWF DID. END RESULT WILL BE
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.

BARNES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

THE COLD FRONT HAS ONLY PASSED PIA SO FAR THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS AND -RADZ
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. THE FRONT IS PICKING UP SPEED...SO
MVFR CIGS SHOULD ONLY LINGER THROUGH 17Z/18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL NOT FORECAST ANY FOG FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUID OUTPUT.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-171100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL RURAL ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL REMAIN FLOODED TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN PARTICULAR...THE ILLINOIS...MACKINAW...AND
SPOON RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL RURAL ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN FLOODED TODAY...DUE TO THE VERY
HEAVY RAINS FROM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN PARTICULAR...THE ILLINOIS...SANGAMON...
LITTLE WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHIMON

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