Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WGUS73 KILX 151537
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILC057-095-152000-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FULTON-KNOX-
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
300 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN KNOX AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 1035 AM CDT...RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAD CLIMBED TO OVER 3 INCHES
ALONG THE KNOX/FULTON COUNTY BORDER.  RAINFALL MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY
LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ABINGDON...AVON...FAIRVIEW...FARMINGTON...
LONDON MILLS...MAQUON AND YATES CITY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 8999 4062 8999 4053 9045 4088 9045

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
UPPER LEVEL TROF TRYING TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDNESDAYS WEATHER IS STILL STRETCHED FROM KS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE WITH THE COMING FORECAST.
MAIN ISSUES ARE THIS FRONT AND ITS INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING
WAVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL. MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CROP UP IN THE
EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THE GFS BUILDING IN A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH DRY AND HOT WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST AND
THE SERN CONUS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS NOT REALLY
AFFECTED BY THIS DIFFERENCE...AS THE FORECAST IS DRY EITHER WAY
FOR DAYS 3 THRU 5.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTH WITH
WAA AT THE SFC...HOWEVER... NAM/WRF MAY BE PUSHING IT A LITTLE TOO
FAR NORTH AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS IA AND MO THIS
MORNING MAY KEEP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT COOLER. SO...FRONTAL
POSITION IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/LLJ
ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD...ALLOWING FOR SOME WAA SHOWERS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY...SEVERAL WEAK INFLUENCES KEEPING POPS
IN FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BIG THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATER
AS THE INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES LATER TODAY...ANCHORING MUCH OF THE
CWA IN A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MELD INTO A QUASI
LINEAR STRUCTURE YET AGAIN WITH AN AMPLIFIED WIND THREAT IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END IN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE FA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MIDWEST
MOVES INTO A DRIER PATTERN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS IN ECMWF DROP TO 3C TO 6C...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLE COOLER TEMPS IN UNTIL THE WARM UP KICKS IN AGAIN WITH
SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS THE AREA. PIA AND BMI
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING
DUE TO STRONGER STORMS. WILL TEMPO A COUPLE HOURS OF THOSE
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH SITES. THE REMAINDER OF C IL
WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION...SO WILL BROAD BRUSH THOSE
AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL TEMPO 3 HRS OF
IFR VIS AND CIGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE EVENING. TIMING STILL A
LITTLE IN DOUBT...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ON THE LOW VIS AND CIGS
OCCURRING.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ESE OF MOST TAF
SITES...POSSIBLE NOT DEC/CMI. WENT WITH NW WINDS AND IFR CIGS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ONCE THE STORMS DEPART.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
540 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILZ027>031-036>038-161100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
540 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAIN...FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WILL AGGRAVATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN PARTICULAR...THE ILLINOIS...MACKINAW...AND
SPOON RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-161100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
540 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP...AND FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
ANY ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
AGGRAVATED.

THE STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN PARTICULAR...THE ILLINOIS...SANGAMON...LITTLE
WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND 1 AM.

SHIMON