Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 112014
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
314 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

INC029-047-137-OHC017-061-112030-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090211T2030Z/
FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-HAMILTON OH-BUTLER OH-
313 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EST
FOR RIPLEY...DEARBORN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
AND SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST OHIO...

AT 311 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LAUREL TO BENHAM...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILAN...MOORES HILL...DILLSBORO...BROOKVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...HIDDEN
VALLEY...GREENDALE AND BRIGHT.

IN ADDITION...PEPPERTOWN...METAMORA...FRIENDSHIP...SUNMAN...
INTERSTATE 74 AT STATE ROUTE 101...PENNTOWN...FARMERS RETREAT AND
BLOOMING GROVE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3927 8531 3950 8531 3952 8503 3951 8482
      3953 8480 3927 8472 3913 8477 3895 8509
      3893 8520 3891 8524 3891 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 255DEG 42KT 3949 8520 3897 8522

$$

000 
WWUS51 KILN 112025
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

INC029-047-137-OHC017-061-112035-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090211T2030Z/
FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-HAMILTON OH-BUTLER OH-
325 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RIPLEY...DEARBORN AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 330
PM EST...

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3927 8531 3950 8531 3952 8503 3951 8482
      3953 8480 3927 8472 3913 8477 3895 8509
      3893 8520 3891 8524 3891 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 255DEG 42KT 3953 8502 3901 8505

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...SENDING A QUICK-MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST OF DAY. UPDATED
FORECAST TO LOWER POPS EARLY BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG AND ANY CONVECTION WILL TAP LOW LEVEL
JET TO SEND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TORNADO WATCH WILL SOON BE ISSUED
FOR CINCINNATI METRO AND EXPANSION OF WATCH AREA IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUING. THIS WILL CREATE
NEARLY VERTICAL LOW-LEVEL THETA SURFACES...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS APPROACHING 50-KT STILL APPEAR LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS HIGH WIND THREAT. SINCE COMPARISONS OF THIS EVENT TO THE
SEPTEMBER WINDSTORM ARE INEVITABLE...HERE ARE A FEW NOTES.
FIRST...THE SEPTEMBER EVENT OCCURRED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WHICH RESULTED IN SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
TURBULENT MIXING OF STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS EVENT WILL
OCCUR AT NIGHT...SO MIXING AND THE ABILITY TO TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS GREAT. THEREFORE WOULD NOT EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO
BE VERY PROLONGED. ALSO...THE SEPT EVENT OCCURRED WITH FULL
FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WHICH MADE IT MUCH EASIER FOR THEM TO BE
SNAPPED AND TOPPLED. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH TREES ARE CURRENTLY
VOID OF LEAVES...THEY HAVE BEEN WEAKENED BY RECENT ICE EVENTS AND
A SATURATED SOIL DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL.
THUS...STILL EXPECT SOME TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CALM TO BELOW ADVY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW TAKES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...SO TRENDED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THURS NIGHT AND FRI WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR SATURDAY...GFS SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO AN UPPER RIDGE. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN AND SNOW...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT
EASTERN LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXTENDING THE PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. READINGS WILL SLIP TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE INTO AREA NEAR/AFTER 20Z...AFFECTING
KCVG/KLUK...THEN UP TO KCMH/KLCK NEAR 23Z. KLCK/KCMH WILL CONTINUE
WTH VFR CIGS PRIOR TO THIS TIME. HAVE TRIED TIMING THE CB AND
LOWERED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOC WTH CONVECTIVE LINE. SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH LINE...BUT GENERALLY GUSTS TO 35-45KTS. VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVR KY ATTM. THE MORE
SEVERE WIND WILL COME BEHIND THE CONV LINE WHERE GUSTS FROM 50 TO
APPROACHING 60KTS ESPECIALLY FROM 22Z-04Z IN THE SW AND 23-06Z IN
THE EAST. KILN SNDG AT 12Z HAD 50KTS AT JUST 25K FT. 18Z SNDG TO
BE RELEASED...AND AM ANTICIPATING THESE WINDS TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO
SFC WTH MIXING OCCURRING...THEN TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
ABOUT 22Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAWBLITZEL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

INZ058-059-066-KYZ100-OHZ045-046-052>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088-
121915-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 18 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-121915-
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...MIAMI
VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ077>079-121915-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-
208 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 16 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.