Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
135 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN
DRIER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL SWING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY WEST OF
THE REGION MAY SPARK CONVECTION WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL
THIS FAR EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PLACE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE BISECTING
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SEE A CHANCE HERE...AND THEN DRIVE SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT. ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE WELL SOUTH OF
CWA...MORE IN THE TN VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED
NIGHT AND THURS FOR A DRIER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDED TOWARD THE 06Z GFS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST AS A 500MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME THE
DRIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY..BUT SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF
SYSTEMS IS STILL SEEN IN MODELS. BELIEVE MONDAY WILL HAVE BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS 500 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND ...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING BACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN INDIANA.
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AT THE MOMENT
SO THINK A LOT OF THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUR WAY.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A VCSH ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 10Z
AND TOWARD 12Z ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING GOOD
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL HANDLE THE THREAT
WITH A VCSH/CB...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PARKER
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-040900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
448 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ050-040830-
WAYNE IN-
402 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 430 AM
EDT...

AT 401 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HAGERSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUBLIN...CAMBRIDGE CITY...HAGERSTOWN...RICHMOND...FOUNTAIN CITY AND
CENTERVILLE.

IN ADDITION...MOUNT AUBURN...FRANKLIN...EAST GERMANTOWN...
JACKSONBURG...ECONOMY...GREENS FORK...RICHMOND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND
MIDDLEBORO ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO
PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.