Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SIGNIFICANT H5 S/W TO DROP THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE FA BETWEEN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. 18Z ILN SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH AN LI OF -11 AND CAPE 5400
J/KG...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL MID LEVEL CAP. 40-50KT H8 JET
WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING BEGINNING AROUND 00Z AND PEAKING AROUND
06Z. EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVR THE MS VALY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ROLL EWD THRU IL/IN INTO NRN OH BETWEEN 03Z-
06Z...TAPPING THE REMAINING INSTABILITY. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD. QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL AFFECT.
KEPT BEST POPS I-70ISH NWD...BUT DID DROP LIKELY POPS TO THE OH
RIVER. KEPT MENTION OF PSBL SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT HAIL OR POSSIBLY A TOR.

ISSUED FFA TO COVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS MCS.

TEMP WISE...RAN CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE THE MCS EXITING THE WRN FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
KEPT POPS IN THE S/SE THRU 15Z AS CDFNT DRAGS THRU.

SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE MCS WITH HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRIED
OUT THE FCST FOR SAT AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACRS THE
REGION SAT NGT INTO SUN.

WEAK WRMFNT TRIES TO PUSH IN LATE SUN NGT. KEPT FCST DRY SUN NGT
FOR NOW...BUT POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE W AT A LATER TIME.

TRENDED FOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE TOMORROW. THEN WENT A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPS SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY WILL
WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AXIS TRYING TO NOSE
UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND TRYING TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP MEASURABLE PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM...THIS
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY WASHING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THIS LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO COME THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN TIMING. THUS USED
VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A
LARGE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSES
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

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