Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
102 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BEST POPS WILL BE ACRS THE
S...WITH WWD BUILDING CONVECTION AS H8 CONVERGENCE WORKS NW. ACRS
THE N BUT MUCH HAPPENS UNTIL AFT 00Z...WHEN FNT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
FA. THIS SEEMS TO BE BACKED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR.

UPDATED FCST TO SHOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...SO RETAINED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE
DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MORE WARM SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY THEN BACK UP TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FRONT PUSHING TO THE SE OF AREA...HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
FRI NIGHT WITH AREA DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. HIGHEST H8 HEIGHTS REMAIN TO SOUTH OF AREA...THOUGH ECMWF
BUILDING RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN AREA A LITTLE MORE THAN GFS...WHICH IS
MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH ECMWF A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE ENS MEAN...AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FOR
FORECAST SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT/SUN WITH H8 TEMPS 18-20 C
SAT/SUN...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE S AND WEST. HAVE CONTINUED THE
PRECIP THREAT FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH GREAT LAKES...THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ONSET.

ECMWF/ENS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE H5 DEEP LOW PUSHING
THROUGH GTLAKES ON MON/TUE. OPERATIONAL GFS CUTS OFF LOW AND LINGERS
IT IN WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HAS A FARTHER EAST SOLUTION
WITH THE CUT OFF LOW. THE ENS MEAN SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
STILL SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF. JUST CHECKING THE 12Z ECMWF
NOW HAS UPR LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO INTRODUCE PRECIP INTO THE NE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUE.

STILL KEPT TEMPS NEXT WEEK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO FEW CHANGES
HERE. IF 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE CHOICE...WOULD THEN NEED TO
LOWER TEMPS FOR TUE/WED IN THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE
WARM AIRMASS AHD OF THIS FRONT...ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF AND MARGINAL INSTBY HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. SOME
PATCHY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTN. GFS SOLN APPEARS OVER
DONE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 75 PLUS AND THUS OVERESTIMATES THE INSTABILITY.
NAM APPEARS MORE REALISTIC WITH MODERATE INSTBY DEVELOPING WITH BLYR
CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG DURG THE AFTN.

EXPECT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURG THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATE
INSTBY AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS SHUD INCREASE DURG THE LATE AFTN...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF TIMING AND COVERAGE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS WITH CB MENTIONED.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THRU THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...HAVE
CONTD VCSH WITH CB MENTION. HAVE THREAT FOR PRECIP ENDING AT 30
HOUR KCVG TAF SITE AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
234 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-261845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
234 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056-261845-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-LICKING-
234 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GETTYSBURG              40.12N 84.50W
06/25/2009                   DARKE              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A CHIMNEY WAS BLOWN OVER. SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWNED.

&&

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
216 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ093-096-097-OHZ078-251900-
CAMPBELL KY-PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CLERMONT OH-
216 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CLERMONT...
NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED FOUR MILES NORTHWEST OF MOSCOW...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEACH
GROVE...IVOR...MOSCOW...MOUNT AUBURN...NEVILLE...FOSTER...WILLOW
GROVE...LENOXBURG...CHILO...BRADFORD...UTOPIA AND JOHNSVILLE.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

HATZOS