Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WGUS71 KILN 220126
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

KYC161-220215-
/O.CON.KILN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090922T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASON KY-
926 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR MASON COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM
EDT...

AT 921 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OUT OF MASON COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR 
UNTIL RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL HAS HAD A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE.

AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER NORTHWEST 
MASON COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MAYSVILLE.

IN ADDITION...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN...MINERVA AND 
TUCKAHOE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH ON THE THE ROAD. IT ONLY
TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD
RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 8394 3858 8397 3859 8400 3877 8391
      3875 8386 3871 8384 3870 8380 3865 8376
      3863 8369 3864 8365 3863 8364 3853 8365
      3846 8386

$$

000 
WGUS71 KILN 220213
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

KYC161-220224-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090922T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASON KY-
1013 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MASON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM
EDT...

STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING
TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3849 8394 3858 8397 3859 8400 3877 8391
      3875 8386 3871 8384 3870 8380 3865 8376
      3863 8369 3864 8365 3863 8364 3853 8365
      3846 8386

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES IN A BAND OF CONVERGENCE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WENT WITH POPS AS HIGH AS CATEGORICAL FOR THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BANDS OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...ENHANCED
BY DAYTIME HEATING-INDUCED INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO
THE NARROW MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE BANDS.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S. STAYED BELOW WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS START OUT IN AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MID
WEEK THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION IS STILL
FARTHEST WEST WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IS CATCHING UP.

THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...OPENS UP AND COMES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING SLOWER AND ECMWF QUICKEST. LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND TRENDS...HAVE TRENDED FCST TOWARD A COMPROMISE.

WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING ON
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS LOW. HAVE CHC POPS ACRS THE SOUTH EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN HAVE SHOWN A DRYING TREND LATER ON THURSDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH UPR LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION HAVE CONTD
DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WITH UPR LOW SHIFTING EAST...HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS BACK IN FROM THE
SW FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTD A MENTION OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY
WITH UPR TROF EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DOMINATE ON MONDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FROM EMBEDDED
S/W ENERGY. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A WETTER SOLN MON BUT GFS
IS DRY. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A SILENT 20 POP ON MONDAY.

TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MEX GUID. FOR
LOWS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUID
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHETHER LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM AT TAF SITES AND WHEN.

HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT WHICH IS TO BRING
STRATUS TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS TO RISE TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z
TUESDAY. ATTM...MAINLY MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
AT KLUK WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE SOME IFR VSBYS.

WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...WILL KEPT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SO HAVE PLACED A VCSH AND CB CLOUD DESCRIPTOR
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
516 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
516 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
456 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLOOD            MAYSVILLE               38.63N 83.78W
09/21/2009                   MASON              KY   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER REPORTED OVER ROADWAYS.

&&

SFH