Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WGUS71 KILN 111945
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

OHC037-109-111953-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090711T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIAMI OH-DARKE OH-
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN DARKE AND
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATED THAT HIGH WATER THAT HAD 
AFFECTED THE REGION HAS RECEDED...AND THUS THE THREAT FOR FLASH 
FLOODING HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 4017 8479 4009 8406 3988 8405 3989 8415
      3992 8416 3992 8481

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOUND ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LAY OUT OVER KENTUCKY AND THEN RETURN TO THE REGION AS
THE HIGH EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OVER SERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS IN WISCONSIN AND IOWA ARE APPROACHING THE CWA ALONG THE
FRONT AND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOUND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ATTM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THE STORMS ARE DOING ALL THAT MUCH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM AND THE FRONT IS CROSSING CWA. BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR RIGHT-TURNING STORMS. HAVE
NOTICED THAT STORMS TONIGHT ARE FOLLOWING INTO THEIR OWN RAIN AREA
AND HITTING A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PETERING OUT RELATIVELY
QUICKLY. IF A RIGHT TURNER CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THIS WILL
NOT BE THE CASE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HEIGHTENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT CROSSES QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS A
VERY TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT WE CAN EXPECT OVER NORTHERN CWA
BY LATE EVENING. THIS POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY
CONTINUED CONVECTION...AND THE STORMS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE CWA
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW CWA OVERNIGHT AND
THE SURFACE FRONT SHEARS OUT OVER KENTUCKY. SOME CONTINUED
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF KY SUNDAY. NAM IS
LIFTING THE BOUNDARY INTO OHIO SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS A TYPICAL
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINING SOUTH OF CWA IN KY AS A STRONG CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EITHER OF THESE
SITUTIONS REMAIN PLAUSIBLE...AND I AM LEANING TOWARDS A MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE NAM...KEEPING SHOWERS OVER KENTUCKY AND
ONLY TICKLING FAR SW OHIO OVERNIGHT. FEEL THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS IS IN SW CWA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT I OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES WERE
SHOWING RAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
STALLED KY FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

ERRED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT
THOUGHT THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW READINGS TO QUICKLY BUMP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S QUITE EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SEE QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER AIR NEVER GETS IN AND
KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOME 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO AS THE DRIER AIR
GETS A MUCH STRONGER FOOTHOLD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH
HAS SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
GFS ENS MEAN. EXPECT FRONT TO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN KY ON
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH JUST IN CASE
THE FURTHER NORTH GFS SOLN WERE TO VERIFY. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH INTRODUCES A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
IN THIS PATTERN. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL BRING A STRONG SFC WAVE AND
AN ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS FEATURE
CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE I CAN JUMP ON THIS
SOLUTION.  FOR NOW...SIDED WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF AND KEPT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONT WEDS AND WEDS
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR AT LCK/LUK/ILN THIS MORNING AND THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...ONE IN NRN IND AND THE SECOND ACROSS SRN IL. MODELS
ARE INDICATING INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
LINE...WHICH WILL REACH KDAY AFTER 15Z AND THEN CVG/LUK/ILN AFTER
16Z. TEMPO GROUPS FCST INITIALLY FOR THE LINE AT THE AFORMENTIONED
TERMINALS WITH TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS AND THEN INTO THE LATE AFTN
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SRLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AND SHIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO WRLY BY 00Z
AND TO MORE NWRLY BY THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUNDAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT ADVECTS
SE OF THE TERMINALS. WITH ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS ON SUNDAY AT ILN/LUK/CVG.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...WOODRUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
501 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

OHZ034-042-111430-
DARKE OH-MERCER OH-
942 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MERCER AND NORTHERN DARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EDT...

AT 942 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR TAMA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLDWATER...ST. HENRY...ANSONIA...CELINA AND VERSAILLES.

IN ADDITION...TAMA...BURKETTSVILLE...NEW WESTON...ROSSBURG...
CARTHAGENA...MONTEZUMA...NORTH STAR AND BROCK ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING
AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND
AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1022 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

OHZ042-043-051-111515-
MIAMI OH-DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-
1022 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SHELBY...DARKE
AND WESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

AT 1019 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROSSBURG TO
HOLLANSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANSONIA...NEW MADISON...GREENVILLE...VERSAILLES...ARCANUM...
BRADFORD...COVINGTON AND WEST MILTON.

IN ADDITION...PALESTINE...BROCK...NORTH STAR...WAYNE LAKES...
YORKSHIRE...OSGOOD...CASTINE AND DARKE COUNTY AIRPORT ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...
WHICH MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

AR