Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SEVERAL COALESCING INGREDIENTS HAVE TRIGGERED
STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS OF
THE ILM FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH STOUT
DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...WHILE AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NC APPALACHIANS APPEARS ALSO TO BE DEEPENING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY FAVOR STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NC ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE GIVEN THE INTENSE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS. SUSPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND PUSH
GENERALLY EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING WRN NC
COULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
COASTAL AND MARINE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG UP AND
WEAKENING OVER LOCAL AREA ON SAT WITH WINDS STARTING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE W AND NW. SHOULD SEE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY FLAIR UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON SAT BEFORE PUSHING
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD PUSH FROM THE N-NW
BY SAT NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS UP TO 75
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ADVANCES THROUGH
LOCAL AREA. MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATE SAT AFTN UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP NEAR 2 INCHES.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AS NW WINDS PICK UP ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT.

THE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N-NW PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A NICE
DAY FOR SUNDAY. PCP WATER DROPS DOWN TO NEAR AN INCH INLAND AND
1.25 INCHES NEAR THE COAST BY SUN MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE SUN IN A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ONCE AGAIN AT THE SFC AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORHTWEST BY MON.

TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
90S MOST PLACES WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR 70 TO NEAR 75 ALONG THE
COAST SAT AFTN. GOOD PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD DROP THEM DOWN TO THE
MID 60S INLAND BY SUN MORNING BEHIND FRONT. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
CLOSE TO 105 OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AS DEWPOINTS STAY UP AROUND 70 AND W-NW WINDS KEEP TEMPS
WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA IS AN UPPER TROFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY BUT CYCLONIC ALLY CURVED FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  A AFC FRONT OR PIEDMONT TROFF WILL SPEND A LOT OF
TIME OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND NOT GO TOO FAR AS IT WILL BE
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE DIURNAL SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD GO DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN GET PUSHED A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST.  TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
THUR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STAYED BASICALLY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. JUICY ATMOSPHERE WITH
GOOD CAPES WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BEGINNING BETWEEN
17-18Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL PIN THE RESULTANT NEAR THE COAST...WITH
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL TADS THROUGH 21Z. BLT AND FLO
WILL ALSO SEE CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT WILL MOSTLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY
BETWEEN 04-07Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER BRIEF
BOUTS OF IFR DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN CONVECTION ARE LIKELY.
SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE INLAND TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS MORNING AS THE
FRONT STRUGGLES TO DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SEAS ARE RESPONDING TO THE INCREASING SW SURFACE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REPORTING SEAS NOW
UP TO 4 FEET. THE SURFACE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL FAVOR HIGHEST SEAS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...WHILE OFFSHORE
FLOW KEEPS NEAR SHORE SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE FROM LITTLE RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO NORTH SANTEE AND ALONG THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER NEAR
SHORE WATERS. OVERNIGHT WELL LIKELY SEE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER
THE OUTER PORTION NORTH OF MERRELS INLET WHERE ISOLATED 5 FOOT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND ABOUT 15 NM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL TRANSITION TO 5-6 SECOND PERIODS WHICH
WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STEEP CHOP ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS AFTN MARINE PACKAGE WELL
HIGHLIGHT AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
MARINE ZONES NORTH OF MERRELS INLET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD VEER AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SAT BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE AND WESTERLY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS GETS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD PUSH BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH OFF
SHORE TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW BY SUN MORNING. THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST
VERY BRIEFLY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S-SW AGAIN AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS HEADING INTO MONDAY.
EVEN WITH WINDS SHIFTS LIKELY...SPEEDS WILL HOLD MAINLY AROUND 15
KTS OR BELOW. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA IS AN UPPER TROFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY BUT CYCLONIC ALLY CURVED FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  A AFC FRONT OR PIEDMONT TROFF WILL SPEND A LOT OF
TIME OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND NOT GO TOO FAR AS IT WILL BE
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIP FORECAST SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE DIURNAL SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS...BUT COULD GO DRIER IF THE FRONT CAN GET PUSHED A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST.  TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.IL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MJC/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-272000-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
357 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-272000-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
357 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MJC

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