Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT
REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS BASICALLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND IS LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE EVENING AS UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES. STORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASED
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO GAIN STRENGTH AS THE SPREAD
EAST. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG STORMS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT MAY USE UP MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FROPA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AIR AS THE PERIOD ENDS. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST
AT THE BEGINNING AT THE PERIOD. AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK OVER THE
AREA AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL BE THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S AT THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFT FARTHER EAST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IS EXPECT ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF LOCAL AREA EARLY MON. THE GFS KEEPS THIS BACK DOOR FRONT STALLED
JUST TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT MOVES BACK NORTH LATE MON...BUT THE NAM
PUSHES IT SOUTH THROUGH LOCAL AREA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO AFTN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR MON...ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE PICTURE AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
BE AROUND IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MON
INTO TUES. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...ABOVE THE SURFACE...FLOW WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW MON THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. EVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AND EXPECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. PCP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR BELOW FROM MON
THROUGH THURS MORNING AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THURS IN WHICH TIME THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SW AS A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
STALL OUT OVER NC AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FLORIDA. THIS LOW COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THEREFORE WILL ADVERTISE LOWER END
POPS IN MORE DIURNAL TYPE SHWR ACTIVITY BY WED THROUGH EARLY THURS
AND THEN BETTER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST HEADING INTO LATE THURS AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOWERS AND
TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH
19Z. AFTER 19Z THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
WITH MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SPENT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NC IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FLO/LBT
21-01Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MORE INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT NORTHWEST OF FLO/LBT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE COASTAL
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SATURDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. SEAS WILL START TO
BUILD...BUT WITH SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FETCH
DO NOT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD MUCH BEYOND 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SAT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
IN ITS WAKE. LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND MARGINAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT ONLY AT
10 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING A SURGE OF 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. IF THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED THEN WINDS SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET BUT COULD BE HIGHER NORTH OF CAPE FEAR IF
SURGE DOES DEVELOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS
OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO LOCAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT...BUT BY MON AFTN WINDS WILL VEER BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEABREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MOST OF THE TIME 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-301900-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-301900-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

III

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

SCZ046-292330-
GEORGETOWN-
626 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY...

AT 624 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAMBERT...OR 14 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN....MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE GEORGETOWN...GRAVES...
JACKSON...LAMBERT...NORTH SANTEE...OATLAND AND SAMPIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

RGZ

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