Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO
THE PEE DEE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WE HAVE RAMPED UP POPS INTO THE 80-100% RANGE FOR
FLORENCE...DARLINGTON...DILLON AND LUMBERTON THROUGH ABOUT 9-10 PM
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ON A REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER FROM
PRIOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL EARLIER THIS MORNING.
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME WIND DAMAGE
IS POSSIBLE WHERE STRONG CELLS COLLAPSE. ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT
CONVECTION HAS BEEN REFIRING ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE
CAPE FEAR AREA FOR HOURS NOW. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5
INCHES ARE ESTIMATED BY RADAR BUT THESE ARE LIKELY ABOUT 30% TOO
HIGH FROM HAIL CONTAMINATION. A SHARP DELINEATION EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE STABLE MARINE AIR IS
NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY
TRAILING STORMS BEHIND THE CLUSTER IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SPOTTY NEAR THE COAST WITH A MORE STABILIZING
EFFECT PROVIDED BY THE MARINE AIRMASS SPREADING ONSHORE IN THE LOW
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PCP WATER
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE AFTN BOTH DAYS. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE LACKING AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISM...A WEAK SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE NORTH AND DISSIPATE BY LATE
TUES AND DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
LOCAL AREA...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF
SHOWING BEST CHC TUES AFTN TO OUR SW AND WITH STEERING FLOW OUT OF
THE SW...LOCAL AREA SHOULD GET FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE AT THAT
TIME...EVEN THE COASTAL AREAS. FOR WED...MODELS SHOWING A LOW
TRACKING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY. GFS SHOWS THIS LOW A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAIN FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF LOCAL AREA. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER MAIN FOCUS FOR LOCAL CWA SHOULD BE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BOTH AFTERNOONS.

TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY STABLE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UP NEAR 80
DURING THE DAY AND 60S AT NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PCP MAY KEEP TEMPS
A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY TUES AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHEST PWATS ON FRI BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ON THU. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.

COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA STA INTO SUN WITH 00Z ECMWF
SHOWING MORE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS HAS
ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND IS NOW SHOWING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS FRONT ARRIVING DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BUMP POPS
INTO LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR SAT AFTN/EVE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN AND MON WITH
FLAT 5H RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE S. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAD
BEEN SHOWING A NICE 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF THIS WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH THROUGH KLBT AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE AND
PEAK WINDS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE TOP OF THE HOUR. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY WITH THE TSTM AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY 01 TO 02 UTC. CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND KFLO HAS BEEN WORKED
OVER ALREADY TODAY. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE TOP OF
THE HOUR AT KFLO AND REMAIN AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. WITH LIGHT
WINDS MAY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR VSBY AT KFLO AND KLBT ON THE
RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM SQUALL LINE.

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES HAVE ADDED A MENTION
OF CB IN THE TAFS FOR TUESDAY BUT A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR COULD BE
EXPECTED IF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS OR ADVECTS ACROSS TERMINAL SITE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS
WITH THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OCEAN SURFACE PREVENTING
MIXING OF THE WINDS DOWN TO GENERATED WAVES. AFTER KNOCKING ABOUT
20-30% OFF THE WAVEWATCH FORECAST AND BLENDING THIS WITH THE LOCAL
WIND-2-WAVE TOOL OUTPUT WE GET 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING HOURS...EXCEPT 3 FT NEAR SHORE SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH. SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT WITH A
WEAKER GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INLAND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE WITH MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINTAINING A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH WILL
ALREADY HAVE SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS ON FRI WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SPEED LIKELY TO PUSH SEAS ABOVE 6 FT BY SAT MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...HAWKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ024-032>034-039-046-052345-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-DILLON-FLORENCE-
MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
742 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SCZ017-023-052345-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-
742 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-052345-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
742 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

9

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
833 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

SCZ046-050130-
GEORGETOWN-
833 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY...

AT 832 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LAMBERT...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF MCCLELLANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS
INLET...GRAVES...JACKSON...LITCHFIELD BEACH...NORTH SANTEE...
PLANTERSVILLE...SAMPIT AND PAWLEYS ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

III

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
835 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW LATTA              34.32N 79.46W
05/04/2009                   DILLON             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON GUM SWAMP ROAD.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DILLON                  34.42N 79.37W
05/04/2009                   DILLON             SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF DILLON.

0708 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORK                    34.28N 79.27W
05/04/2009                   DILLON             SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE FORK AREA.

&&

HAWKINS

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