Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND STORM CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH GENERALLY ALONG THE
KS-OK BORDER. STORMS DEVELOPED AROUND 5 AM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN
AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
305K SURFACE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE RAPIDLY ONCE
YOU GET NORTH OF THE OK-KS BORDER. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...SOME WILL PRODUCE SOME SMALLER HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON
HOUR APPROACH. SINCE THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH...FEEL THAT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE A REPEAT OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER HAVING
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION
WILL BE THE TIMING OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TODAY:
LATEST PROFILERS WERE SHOWING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO
BACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS SKIRTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THERE ARE DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
ALSO SHOWING AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY (925-850MB) ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 06Z RUC IS SHOWING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND
305K IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES APPROACHING
2000J/KG. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH 30-40KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400 IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MAY
END UP BEING DRY AND RATHER COOL WITH CHILLY NORTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT:
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE ELEVATED
BOUNDARY (925-850MB) WILL MOVE. THE GFS TENDS TO MOVE IT QUITE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM/SREF. HOWEVER...I AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC
OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING TOO FAR SOUTH...UNLESS WE GET QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP A
STRONGER COLD POOL. AS A RESULT...WE ARE FOLLOWING CLOSEST THE
NAM/SREF SOLUTION WHICH STALLS OUT THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY HELP INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE
PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THAT AREA FOR NOW. FURTHER
NORTH...WE MAY GO AHEAD AND YANK OUT THE
SALINA...RICE...MCPHERSON...MARION AND CHASE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE PICTURE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
WE WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS SOME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TENDS TO KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
WE DID LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY AS WELL MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BASED ON A MORE DELAYED TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WE PLAN ON STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.

COX

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING OVER E & SE KS AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SE
MOVEMENT TOWARD GRADUALLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WITH FORECAST
EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED 01/06Z TAFS TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z
ISSUANCE FOR MOST OF VALID TAF CYCLE WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS FCST
ACROSS SC & SE KS TERMINALS WHERE LOCALIZED VSBYS OF 2-3SM LIKELY
IN AREAS OF +TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  46  56  47 /  60  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      56  45  56  46 /  50  50  50  40
NEWTON          56  45  57  46 /  60  50  50  30
ELDORADO        57  46  56  47 /  60  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  47  57  48 /  60  70  70  40
RUSSELL         57  44  57  44 /  40  30  30  30
GREAT BEND      57  44  56  45 /  40  30  30  30
SALINA          56  44  57  45 /  40  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       57  45  57  46 /  50  40  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  49  58  48 /  70  70  70  30
CHANUTE         59  48  57  48 /  70  70  70  30
IOLA            58  48  57  47 /  60  70  70  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  49  57  48 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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