Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED IN A NE-SW MANNER
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA TO SE CO. A STRONG DRY LINE EXTENDED S/SW FROM THE
FRONT BETWEEEN KDDC & KGCK ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON
EVENING AS IT WILL NO DOUBT BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA CAPABLE OF ALSO PRODUCING +RA THROUGH MON MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-MON NIGHT:
WITH STRONG() HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER FAR SE CONUS EACH SHORT-WAVE
EJECTING FROM MAIN UPR-DECK TROF POSITIONED OVER PACIFIC NW WILL LIKELY
BE FORCED NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THE AFORE-MENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT WOULD TRANSITION INTO COLD FRONT & MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY TONIGHT & MON MORNING. ENCOUNTERING RICHER & DEEPER
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES SE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS
+TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...MANY OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH +RA
AN INCREASING THREAT AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THROUGH 1 PM MON. A
2ND MID-UPR SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN WRN U.S. UPR TROF IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECSSOR & SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT KICKER
TO FORCE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SE KS MON AFTERNOON. AS SUCH THE FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 PM LOOKS QUITE GOOD. SCT POST-FRONTAL SHRA
MAY LINGER OVER SE KS MON EVENING.

TUE:
A BRIEF INTERMISSION FROM CONVECTION STILL SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT:
MORE TSRA ARE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT AS A SFC TROF DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. THE PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT AS A
SFC LOW...STRENGTHENING OVER SW KS WED AFTERNOON...SCOOTS NE ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY ALLOWING A POTENT COLD FRONT TO SURGE SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT. AS
SUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...& POSSIBLY SEVERE...TSRA WILL LIKEWISE
INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK. STAY TUNED.

NEXT WEEKEND:
SHOULD START UNSEASONABLY COOL AS A WEAK SEMI-INVERTED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS FRI & FRI NIGHT. VERY GRADUAL WARMUP THEN
ENSUES SAT AFTERNOON AS WEAK SFC TROFFING DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT RANGE.
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PLAINS SAT EVENING AS MID-UPR SHORT-WAVE
SCOOTS E OVER NM...THEN SPREAD E ACROSS MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY LATE SAT
NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR TSRA WOULD SHIFT E OVER PRIMARILY SE KS ON SUN.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 2 TO 3SM AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES...BUT HARD TO TIME. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
THROUGH KRSL AS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY
IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH KSLN...KHUT AND KICT THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE PUSHING OFF SOUTHEAST THROUGH
KCNU SOMETIME MONDAY.

BILLINGS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  63  39  68 /  80  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      55  59  38  66 /  90  50   0   0
NEWTON          57  60  38  67 /  90  60  10   0
ELDORADO        60  63  40  68 /  90  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  68  42  70 /  80  60  20   0
RUSSELL         47  57  38  66 /  80  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  58  38  66 /  80  30   0   0
SALINA          50  57  38  66 /  90  40   0   0
MCPHERSON       53  58  38  66 /  90  50   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  71  45  72 /  80  60  30   0
CHANUTE         63  67  43  69 /  80  60  30   0
IOLA            62  66  42  68 /  90  70  30   0
PARSONS-KPPF    65  70  45  70 /  80  60  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049-051>053-068>071-
083-092>095-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS AS A SECOND...AND
STRONGER...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING
70 MPH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY AND MAY BE RAIN WRAPPED...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG...AND
SOUTHEAST...OF THE TURNPIKE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TICKETED FOR THE AREA WEDESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TORNADO          5 SW WICHITA MID CONTIN 37.61N 97.50W
04/26/2009                   SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE STOVE TIPE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AND RAN THE
            COURSE OF A LONG FLAT FIELD FOR AT LEAST FIVE MINUTES,
            PULLING UP AT TIMES HALF-WAY ONLY TO TOUCH BACK DOWN
            AGAIN. MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST.

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
610 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TORNADO          2 SW LAKE AFTON         37.59N 97.65W
04/26/2009                   SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KWCH CHASER REPORTS HOME DAMAGE DUE TO TORNADO.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW HAYSVILLE         37.56N 97.37W
04/26/2009  M65 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTH HUTCHINSON        38.03N 97.94W
04/26/2009  E50 MPH          RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GODDARD                 37.66N 97.58W
04/26/2009  E55 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW MID CONTINENT AIR 37.76N 97.57W
04/26/2009  E60 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            21ST NORTH AND 167TH WEST

&&

MJR