Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS EVENING...THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
MAIN SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MAKE PROGRESS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
OKLAHOMA LINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM TO THE NORTH
JUST AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT DRYLINE /GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG I-35/
WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO TO NEAR HIGHWAY 400 IN SOUTHERN KS. POSITION OF THIS
WARM SECTOR WILL BE CRITICAL TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES...AS BULK SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC SHOWS SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH BACKING WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT. SRH VALUES AROUND 200-300 J/KG AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST THAT A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST
FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER IN
SOUTHERN KS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY
UNDER THE MAIN SURFACE LOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE KS TURNPIKE TO
THE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL KEEP A TSRA POP AROUND AT
LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  COULD ALSO SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ON THE
NW SIDE OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY ON FRI.

OF LESSOR CONCERN...BUT CERTAINLY IMPORTANT....WILL BE TIGHT
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135 FOR THIS EVENING. COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO AROUND 40
MPH AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS MAIN SURFACE PULLS EAST OF THIS AREA.
SO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

FRI-SAT:
WEAK RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SAT.  SO EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR BOTH DAYS AS
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SAT.  LIFT BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO AREAS WEST OF ICT BY SAT
AFTERNOON....SO WILL LEAVE A POP IN FOR THIS...BUT THINK THAT MAIN
SHOWER CHANCE WILL HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US LOOKS TO PULL THROUGH THE
ROCKIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL TAKING
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN KS LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN...WITH MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS KS DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING. SO WILL GO WITH A
SOLID CHANCE POP FOR EARLY ON SUN...WITH A SOLID CHANCE AND EVEN
SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS FOR SUN DURING THE DAYTIME.
NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT TSRA CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MAIN
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...SO WILL
KEEP THIS MENTION AROUND UNTIL SUN EVENING. COLD NATURE TO THIS
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CHILLY AND DAMP SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH
TEMPS MODERATING SOMEWHAT AS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NW LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW WED AND THU WILL PLAY OUT AS ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER
ON STRENGTH AND HOW DEEP THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS IT COMES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW...AND KEEP POPS IN
FOR WED/THU.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  58  38  64 /  50  10   0  20
HUTCHINSON      38  57  37  64 /  50   0   0  20
NEWTON          38  57  36  63 /  50  10   0  20
ELDORADO        40  57  36  63 /  50  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  58  38  65 /  40  10   0  20
RUSSELL         36  56  37  62 /  60   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      36  56  38  63 /  60   0   0  20
SALINA          37  56  36  62 /  60  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       37  56  36  63 /  50  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     43  58  37  64 /  40  10   0  10
CHANUTE         42  56  35  63 /  50  10   0  10
IOLA            42  55  34  63 /  50  20   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    43  57  36  64 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ049-051-067-068-082-
083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ047-048-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
414 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
414 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A WINFIELD TO HOWARD TO CHANUTE LINE. VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF THIS AREA...ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...INCLUDING GREATER WICHITA. HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RISK IN THESE AREAS.

STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER ALL AREAS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KETCHAM

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