Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA TO CNTRL/SWRN KS
EARLY THIS EVE...PROGGED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS
BY 12Z WED AND SERN KS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER
WEAKER BOUNDARIES EXIST OVER S-CNTRL/SWRN KS SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FRONT. DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS STRONG AND SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS THIS EVE IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST RSL MAY BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED THIS
EVE...SO WENT WITH TEMPO TS THERE...AND CB OR VCTS ELSEWHERE IN
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS TONIGHT. SOME WEAKENING TREND IN ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN EARLY AM HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT WED PM/EVE. GFS/NAM-
WRF HINT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WED AM IN CNTRL KS BEHIND
FRONT...SO COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT RSL/SLN/HUT.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO GO WITH THIS.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO WED...AND THEN
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KS AT THIS
TIME. NOT ALOT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KS. HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM SLN TO TOP...BUT THIS AREA ALSO REMAINS UNDER
A CAPPING INVERSION. WEAKER CAP IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THIS
AREA...TO THE WEST OF KHYS. EXPECT CAP TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS PV ANOMALY IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NW KS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE SHRA/TSRA WILL
BREAK OUT LATE THIS EVENING...AND COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEFORE 00Z TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED BEFORE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. EVENING SHIFT AND OVERNIGHT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SLOW MOVING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCE...AS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY ON WED.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
KS EARLY WED. PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HARD TO
PIN DOWN AS COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WILL GREATLY AFFECT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WED.
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL BE UNDER A
BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. THIS
WILL BE OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MAINLY PARALLEL
TO THE 850-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SO WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE DAYTIME WED...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT BULK SHEAR OR
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSRA WITH THE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS.

INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS KS.  SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS
FOR WED EVENING...AS THIS SHORTWAVE LEADS TO MORE LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.  AGAIN NOT ALOT OF BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSRA CHANCE.

THU:
EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
KS. AGAIN MAINLY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THU.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW SUBSIDENCE PUSHING MOST OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK LINE BY 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH AREA BECOMING MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY ON
THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE THE LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FRI-SAT:
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FOR FRI INTO
SAT...WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS PLAINS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.  THIS
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA.  GFS TRYS
TO DEVELOP SOME MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
GENERATE A SHOWER CHANCE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIP CHANCE AT THIS TIME.  SO WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY
FOR NOW.

SUN-TUE:
COULD A SEE COOL AND PLEASANT DAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPS ON SUN POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK..WITH MOST OF THE COOLER
AIR STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.  ENSEMBLE PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT CERTAINLY A COOLER TREND.  ECMWF AND TO A
LESSOR DEGREE THE GFS...TRYS TO BRING SOME WARM ADVECTION ACROSS KS
ON MON AND MON NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING...SO
WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  64  83 /  40  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      67  83  61  82 /  50  50  50  20
NEWTON          69  83  62  82 /  50  50  50  30
ELDORADO        68  86  62  82 /  30  50  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  65  84 /  20  30  50  40
RUSSELL         62  80  60  83 /  70  50  60  10
GREAT BEND      63  81  60  81 /  70  50  60  10
SALINA          65  81  62  82 /  70  50  60  10
MCPHERSON       67  82  62  82 /  60  50  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  65  83 /  10  10  40  50
CHANUTE         69  88  64  82 /  10  20  40  50
IOLA            66  85  62  81 /  20  20  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    68  88  64  82 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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