Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING KRSL FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...LIKELY REACHING KCNU JUST BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIKELY MOST NUMEROUS
EAST OF A KSLN-KHUT LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT
THEREAFTER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO NW KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY. ONE IS
NOW PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN IA WITH A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE AT SPEEDS GREATER THAN
100KTS.

TONIGHT-THU:
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS. FAIRLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE
THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL KS. BY 06Z THU THE
FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MAINLY AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. BY 18Z THU THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE-IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH EXPECTED SATURATED GROUNDS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS ON THU WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.

FRI-WED:
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

BY FRI AFTERNOON THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SETTING UP A GREAT WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER
DEPARTMENT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO LAY
OUT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY BACK TO SEASONAL HIGHS BY MON WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY TUE.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AND
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION. WILL
SHOW VCTS MOST LOCALES EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPO
GROUPS IN THE KCNU TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE ARE RELATIVELY
HIGHER. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL END PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  84  59  86 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      61  83  59  85 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          63  83  59  85 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        63  83  58  85 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  83  60  85 /  50  20   0   0
RUSSELL         59  83  55  85 /  20  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  83  56  85 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          63  82  58  84 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  83  59  85 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  83  60  85 /  90  30   0   0
CHANUTE         67  82  56  84 /  80  20   0   0
IOLA            64  82  56  84 /  80  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  82  58  84 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
455 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201730-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
455 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A POWERFUL UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH AROUND 10 PM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA. OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/COX/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

KSZ069-070-094-200015-
BUTLER-ELK-GREENWOOD-
635 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...ELK AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LATHAM...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WINFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             1 NE BURDEN             37.32N 96.74W
08/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LFW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
802 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

KSZ071-200130-
WOODSON-
802 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR WOODSON COUNTY...

AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YATES CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

KETCHAM

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