Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY A LINE OF STORMS
IS ON A NE TO SW LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOME
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXPECT STORMS TO MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THIS THINKING
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DUNTEN
&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG COLD POOL. THIS MCS SHOULD AFFECT THE HUT TAF SITE
SHORTLY AND THE ICT TAF SITE BY 13Z. WE ALSO EXTRAPOLATED THE MCS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE CNU TAF SITE TO ARRIVE AROUND 15Z.
THE CNU TAF SITE MAY ALSO SEE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR WINFILED BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. AFTER THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STABILIZE FOR A WHILE. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP. WE WILL NOT MENTION AND VCTS
AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009/

UPDATE...
WE MADE SOME CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TO MENTION
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 315K AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE
TO GOOD SHEAR 0-6KM VALUES AROUND 35-40KTS.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TODAY:
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A ZONE OF DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT BETWEEN 310-315K. HOWEVER...IT IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
OVERCOMING THE CAP OVER THIS REGION. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WITHIN THIS
ISENTROPIC LAYER IS NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH GOOD 1-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 35-40KTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF ANY STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN THEY MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN GET GOING...THEN IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY MID MORNING. WE ARE
ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF HIGH BASED STORMS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROPAGATING TO SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM DODGE CITY WAS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BETWEEN 4-6KFT. IF THIS ACTIVITY
CAN BETTER ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATER THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN SHOWING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. IF WE SEE A
LOT OF SUN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT WE WOULD DEVELOP GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE BOUNDARY DUE TO STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WE
WILL PLAY THIS ROUTE FOR NOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 90S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS SHOWING A LOT OF RAINFALL
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE NAM/GFS ARE KEYING
IN ON AREAS ON AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400 OVERNIGHT WHILE HPC
IS GOING WITH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WE ARE
FAVORING AREAS AROUND HIGHWAY 400 SINCE THE 850-300MB FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST TO EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THAT STRONG. IF WE SEE A LOT OF CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING THEN HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET ALONG WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DUE TO SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE AT THIS POINT WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT IT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGING
AROUND THE AREA DURING THE TIME FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FAVORING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. AS A RESULT...WE PLAN ON KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND CAUSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

COX

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...ONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE SOUTHEAST KS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD THEREFORE NOT AFFECT KCNU
AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...ADDED TSRA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
TONIGHT...AND INCLUDED ONLY VCTS OR CB WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  66  84  70 /  50  60  40  40
HUTCHINSON      85  65  84  68 /  40  60  40  40
NEWTON          86  65  84  68 /  60  60  40  40
ELDORADO        89  66  84  70 /  60  60  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  68  86  72 /  60  60  50  40
RUSSELL         81  62  82  64 /  60  40  20  40
GREAT BEND      83  63  83  64 /  50  50  30  40
SALINA          82  62  83  67 /  60  40  20  40
MCPHERSON       84  64  83  67 /  50  50  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  68  86  72 /  60  50  50  40
CHANUTE         92  66  85  71 /  60  50  50  40
IOLA            89  66  84  70 /  60  50  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    94  68  86  72 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
641 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.AND POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...BUT THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THUS
KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PERIODIC BOUTS OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

FINALLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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