Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL
MID-MORNING TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL JUST COVER
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH VCTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF KICT TO NEAR KMHK. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND IS SITUATED OVER NW CO/WESTERN WY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
THESE TWO PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WATCHING A COUPLE AREAS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING. RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK COLD POCKET ALONG THE
310K SURFACE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS SE KS ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH
AFTER 12Z WILL BE OVER THE NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER NE CO IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 310K. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT INTO NW KS LATER
THIS MORNING.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT TODAY AND BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT WILL STRETCH FROM SW KS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MINIMAL
CAP...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THIS WEAK FRONT WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER SW KS. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME AFTER DARK AS CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SCENARIOS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. FIRST OFF THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER NW KS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL KS AFTER DARK IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-WED:
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF SE KS DURING
THE DAY TUE AS A MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL THEN UNDERGO A CHANGE WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOST OF THE SW CONUS. BY FRI
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRACKING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE RETURN
OF MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WERE IN FOR
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH PRECIP REMAINING OUT OF THE FORECAST.

LAWSON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT THE ICT/CNU TAF SITES.
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
TO FESTER ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS NEAR
A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 310 AND 315K. THIS CONVECTION
MAY TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ICT TAF SITE
AFTER 09Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CNU TAF SITE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASH OUT LEAVING VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CAP WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH...SO ANY LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z WHEN AN
MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. WE ARE SIDING WITH
THE NAM AT THIS TIME...SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE INITIATION POINT.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  69  90  67 /  30  60  20  10
HUTCHINSON      93  68  90  66 /  40  60  20  10
NEWTON          94  68  89  66 /  30  60  20  10
ELDORADO        94  67  88  65 /  30  60  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  88  68 /  30  50  30  10
RUSSELL         89  65  91  64 /  40  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  66  91  64 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          92  67  89  66 /  30  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  67  90  66 /  30  60  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  71  87  67 /  30  60  40  10
CHANUTE         94  70  87  66 /  30  60  40  10
IOLA            93  69  87  66 /  30  60  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    94  71  87  67 /  30  60  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
718 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE-HALF MILE IN
LOW-LYING AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AREAWIDE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH THESE STORMS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED AREAWIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/LAWSON

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