Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
220 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW /500MB/ WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 18Z.  A STRONG JET WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE...ABOUT 80-90 KNOTS ACROSS THE STATE.  THIS IS SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS MID LAYER WIND ON LONG TRACK TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

SURFACE DATA SHOWING VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...GUSTING TO ABOUT 50
KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TRUCKS BLOWN OVER
ON INTERSTATE 70 HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ADDITIONALLY...POWER POLLS
DOWN AND POWER OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SALINA.  THESE WINDS ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM K9K7 SOUTH TO P28.  STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS LINE.  18Z MLCAPES ALREADY AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR.  HEATING GREATER THAN MODELS HAVE
SUGGESTED THUS FAR.  LAPS SOUNDING/HODOGRAPH AND SOUNDING/HODOGRAPH
FORECASTS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LATER
THIS EVENING...THE HODOGRAPH SHOWS A NICE FISH HOOK
SHAPE...FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

&&

KRC

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

TONIGHT:
FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO THE LOWER
CAPES...EXPECT THESE TO BE LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION.  STRONG 0-8KM
SHEAR /105 KNOTS/ SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED...AND 5KM AGL WINDS OF 70 KNOTS SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS DUE TO THE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED HEATING /BY THE
MODELS/.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW AND EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD APPROACH 60 KNOTS.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT /AROUND 6Z/.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...STORMS SHOULD BE MORE
MULTICELLULAR AND COULD POSE A FLOOD THREAT OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE IN
TORNADOES NOT AS HIGH DUE TO THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
EVENING AS THESE DROP.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  DPROG/DT
SHOWING A TREND OF COOLING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  MREF PLUME
DIAGRAMS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE MEMBERS PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SOME OF THESE MEMBERS
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.  IT IS THE TYPE
THAT IS OF CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT ADVERTISEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ENCROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH CHANCES WANING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR RSL. SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL...WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  60  36  64 / 100  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  59  35  62 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          46  59  35  62 /  90  10  10  10
ELDORADO        47  60  36  63 / 100  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  62  37  66 / 100  10  10  10
RUSSELL         37  53  32  61 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      38  55  33  61 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          43  55  36  61 /  50  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       44  57  34  61 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  64  36  65 / 100  40  10  10
CHANUTE         51  61  36  61 /  90  30  10  10
IOLA            50  60  36  61 /  90  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  63  36  63 / 100  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1109 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241615-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1109 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DRYLINE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 135
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BE
LACKING AS WELL. HOWEVER...APPROACHING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
IN CONCERT WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG...WHICH WILL
ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...A FEW
STRONG AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
OVER TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
TRAINING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. SEE THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ADK

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