Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED...WITH ONE GENERALLLY EAST OF I-35 IN MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SECOND AREA BEARING DOWN ON KRSL. THIS SECOND
BATCH OF STORMS ARE ROLLING DOWNHILL FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL AND TURN SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS SETS UP THE SAME ISSUE AS YESTERDAY...WITH A BIG
QUESTION MARK AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
TONIGHTS SYSTEM SEEMINGLY A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...MIGHT NOT BE
QUITE AS PERSISTENT AS YESTERDAY. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY INCREASED WINDS
AT KHUT/KICT...BUT APPEARS THAT SURFACE FRONT MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KRSL/KSLN FOR LAST 6 OR SO HOURS OF FORECAST. THAT
COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG I-70 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN MODELS AND FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

UNCLEAR ONCE AGAIN HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT. NORTH
AMERICAN MODEL IN THE SHORT TERM SEEMS TO BE OUT PERFORMING THE
RUC WITH THE ONGOING STORMS IN OK. AT THIS POINT...THOSE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS ROLLING
DOWNHILL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHTS STORMS PUSHING EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...STORMS
MAY MAKE THE TURN SOUTH A BIT QUICKER TONIGHT. WILL AWAIT TONIGHTS 0000
UTC RUNS TO CONFIRM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...OPTED NOT TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...AND JUST GO WITH
CUMULONIMBUS FOR NOW. PLAN IS TO UPDATE DURING THE EVENING AS
THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR TOMORROW HAVE ASSUMED THERE WOULD BE
OUTFLOW LURKING AND GENERALLY WAS SLOWER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS TO
TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...ONE MORE DAY AROUND HEAT CRITERIA AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAVERED ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE LATEST RUC AND SPC MESO PAGE
SHOWED 3500-4000 J/KG CAPE WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THIS AREA WAS A BIT MORE REMOVED FROM RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT FURTHER NORTH...ALBEIT MODEST...SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY BE PULSE TYPE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE THE GFS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT MID-SUMMER SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
A MODESTLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN OPTIMAL AREA FOR COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE/WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAXS NEAR 105F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO COME UP SHORT OF HEAT CRITERIA TODAY...IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND ADD A
FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS/INCLUDING SALINA...FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR INITIALLY...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING A BIT BY EVENING AND EXPANDING SOUTH TO PERHAPS
ALONG HWY 50 BY DARK. CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ARE RATHER LOW...DUE TO
WEAKENING OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STILL RATHER WARM
AIR/CAP HOLDING AT MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR FESTERING OR RENEWED CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A MORE PRONOUNCED
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE KANSAS IN A PRECARIOUS NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THERE IS RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DAY TO DAY DETAILS...AND WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGES TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
DAYS 4 TO 7...THOUGH DETAILS WILL NEED REFINEMENT WITH EACH
FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING SCT TS OVER SERN KS HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ACTIVITY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
WEAKENING RECENTLY...BUT HAVE CARRIED A TS MENTION AT CNU THRU 20Z
DUE TO PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TS PSBL ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS TO N-CNTRL/NERN OKLAHOMA.
DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH MENTION OF TS ATTM AT ICT TERMINAL. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUES AM. NAM-WRF SHOWING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AND STRATUS SIGNAL TUES AM IN CNTRL KS MUCH MORESO THAN
GFS. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED STRATUS DECK AT SLN/RSL THIS FAR
OUT...BUT PSBL THAT IFR CIGS COULD FORM IN SERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
N OF WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FORMING FROM NERN CO INTO
WRN NE/SERN WY LATE THIS PM/EVE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SERN
PROPAGATION POTENTIAL IN S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT RSL/SLN/CNU LATE TONIGHT/TUES AM. WILL
FURTHER ASSESS RADAR TRENDS THIS EVE BEFORE INSERTING TS MENTION
IN TAFS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  91  70  90 /  20  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      72  90  69  90 /  30  20  20  20
NEWTON          74  90  69  89 /  30  20  20  20
ELDORADO        76  91  68  90 /  20  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  94  72  91 /  20  20  30  20
RUSSELL         68  88  67  90 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      70  89  68  91 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          72  88  68  91 /  30  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       72  89  69  90 /  30  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     77  94  72  90 /  20  20  30  20
CHANUTE         76  91  70  89 /  20  20  30  20
IOLA            76  90  70  88 /  20  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    77  93  71  90 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ049-051>053.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-142045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
336 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS TO
70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER
STRONG STORMS OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

KSZ032-140630-
RUSSELL-
1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 1254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF VICTORIA...OR 14
MILES WEST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN RUSSELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

ES

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