Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MODEL STRUGGLES CONTINUE TO CAST DOUBTS ON FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE LIT UP SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING
LAST NIGHT DESPITE WHAT APPEARED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY
TONIGHT. HAVE HIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HARDER AT KSLN-KCNU BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS. NOT SURE ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT TO KICT/KHUT.
STILL COME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG...BUT NOW SEEMS LESS
LIKELY WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOW EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. 0000 UTC NORTH
AMERICAN MODEL CAME IN QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING
MOST OF THE DAY IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH COOL EAST SURFACE FLOW.
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WITHOUT CONVECTION PUSHES WARM/DRY AIR
INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINKING THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL MAY BE MORE RIGHT AND HAS
WENT DRY FOR NOW. DO BELIEVE STORMS COULD DEVELOP/ROLL BACK INTO
KRSL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MODEL STRUGGLES CONTINUE TO CAST DOUBTS ON FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. RUC SEEMS TO HINT THAT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF KICT...BUT COMBO OF DISTANCE FROM KICT AND
PROBABILITY ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. AND
SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE EITHER. OTHERWISE MAY SEE
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT AS STORMS ROLL DOWNHILL OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE FOR UPSLOPE CLOUDS/FOG AS LAST NIGHT...BUT
PLAN TO USE PERSISTENCE AS THE MAIN MODEL OF CHOICE GIVEN RECENT
MODEL ACCURACY. -HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  THE MORNING 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF A KDDC-KPNC LINE.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z
SHOWS THE FRONT RETREATING NORTH...WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH AND WEST OF A KGBD-KMPR-KBVO LINE.  THIS SHOWS HOW SHALLOW
THIS BOUNDARY IS SINCE IT MIXED OUT.  NWP HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THIS AND NOT WORTH MUCH IN THE SHORT RANGE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN HEAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

CONVECTION...

LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IN THE 310K
AND 315K SURFACES ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.  PINPOINTING THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE FRONT.  THAT
SAID...BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD MID-WEEK AS COLD POOLS FROM NOCTURNAL MCSS PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST.  THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.  SUPPORT FOR THIS IS SHOWN BY THE MREF
PLUMES WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING CONVECTION DURING THE 0-12Z TIME
FRAME ON THE 16TH...17TH...AND 18TH.  PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE.

HEAT...

RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE SHORT RANGE
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THIS CONFIDENCE
QUICKLY EVAPORATES.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING A BIT LOWER
WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING AFTER TUESDAY.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK.  SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

KRC

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND LOW
CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED EAST/WEST
ACROSS THE AREA. IT HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LIKELY DUE TO
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FRONT SHOULD SHARPEN SOME GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400...KEEPING ALL SITES WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
POP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF ICT/HUT/CNU.
THEREFORE...INSERTED VCTS IN SLN/RSL TAF SITES. LATER
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76 104  76  94 /  10  30  30  40
HUTCHINSON      75 101  72  93 /  10  40  40  40
NEWTON          76  99  74  91 /  10  30  30  40
ELDORADO        75 103  74  92 /  10  30  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   77 102  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
RUSSELL         74 101  71  91 /  10  40  40  40
GREAT BEND      74  99  70  90 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          77 102  74  93 /  10  40  40  40
MCPHERSON       75 100  72  93 /  10  40  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     78 102  79  94 /  10  20  20  40
CHANUTE         77 100  78  91 /  10  20  20  40
IOLA            77  99  79  91 /  10  20  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    78 101  79  92 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY VENTURE SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CHECK THE LATEST HEAT WARNING FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS WELL. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KRC/HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
134 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

KSZ047-048-050-130700-
BARTON-ELLSWORTH-RICE-
134 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON...ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES...

AT 133 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELLSWORTH TO
ELLINWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD
THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

ES

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