Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
547 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MUCH AS WAS EXPECTED TSRA INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE & INTENSITY
OVER CNTRL & SC KS PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR WHERE
ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED SW MOISTURE ADVECTION ENHANCED BY SWLY 35KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THESE AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE ASSIGNED VCTS
TO ALL CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS TIL LATE MORNING BY WHICH TIME LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL HAVE WEAKENED. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN
IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT 08/12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...ELEVATED CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES/HEAT THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. THE NAM HAS HAD A BETTER TRACK
RECORD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION
WHICH SUGGESTS IT WILL IMPACT ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WHERE ACCAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO WILL INSERT ISOLATED MENTION THERE.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THAT REMNANT DEBRI
AND SHALLOW OUTFLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY
STUNT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY TWEAK
THEM DOWN A TAD IN SOME AREAS. THE NAM IS SUGGESTIVE FOR A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS LOOK TO ADVECT AND CAP AREAS TO THE
WEST...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO OVERCOME WEAKER
CAPPING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST COLLABORATION
ALLOWED A COMPROMISE...AND WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS HAVE COME
UP A BIT SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTURY TYPE READINGS STILL LOOK LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREAS ALONG I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY
AND MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT MAXS COULD GET VERY HOT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MAXS TOPPING 105F ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT...WE MAY
BE SPARED THE OPPRESSIVE TYPE READINGS WITH THIS HEAT. HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND 105F WHICH MAY
REQUIRE A HEAT HEADLINE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A CB
CLOUD GROUP AT RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. THE NAM-
WRF CONTINUES TO PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM ON
THE 310-315K SURFACES ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS WITHIN THE PERSISTENT
N-S MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SO EVEN IF CONVECTION OVER THE HI
PLAINS DOES NOT MAKE IT TO OUR AREA...CONVECTION MAY INITIATE OVER
OUR WRN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  73 101  76 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  71 101  74 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  72 100  75 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  72  99  76 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  72 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         96  72 102  72 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  71 101  73 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          94  73 102  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71 101  74 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  98  75 /  10  10  20  10
CHANUTE         91  70  97  74 /  10  10  20  10
IOLA            90  70  97  74 /  10  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  97  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090945-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
531 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO SEDAN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.

HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS HEAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BESIDES THE HEAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

KSZ052-068-069-081130-
BUTLER-HARVEY-MARION-
601 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...HARVEY AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 600 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEABODY...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HARVEY...NORTHWESTERN BUTLER AND SOUTHERN
MARION COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

ES

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