Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT-NMRS STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVE
FROM W-CNTRL THRU N-CNTRL KS...RESULTING FROM STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG WIND GUSTS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE MAIN IMPACT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT RSL/SLN. MCS ACTIVITY
COULD PUSH SLIGHTLY SWD THRU CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT AS 50KT S-SWRLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ALLOWS SWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO AFFECT HUT/ICT
TERMINALS EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU
SRN KS DURING DAY SAT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM WITH
SCT TS DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
INTO NRN OK SAT EVE.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CUMULUS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THAT COULD AFFECT A
PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THEY HAD BEEN INDICATING. CONTINUED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION MAY IN FACT BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST A BIT...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MORE
SUMMER PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES BY MID WEEK.

WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT
CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A
STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND
WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST
SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  87  67  87 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      68  85  64  87 /  40  30  10  10
NEWTON          69  84  64  87 /  30  30  10  10
ELDORADO        70  86  63  87 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  88  68  87 /  20  30  30  10
RUSSELL         67  83  60  87 /  70  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  83  60  87 /  60  10  10  10
SALINA          70  84  63  87 /  60  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  84  64  86 /  40  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  90  67  88 /  20  30  30  10
CHANUTE         73  86  66  86 /  30  30  20  10
IOLA            74  84  66  85 /  30  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  89  66  87 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

KSZ033-032245-
LINCOLN-
514 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 511 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR HUNTER...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 50 MPH COULD AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN COUNTY FROM THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

KSZ032-032330-
RUSSELL-
556 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LURAY...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

KSZ032-033-040045-
LINCOLN-RUSSELL-
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUCAS...OR 15 MILES EAST
OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

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