Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS EVENING...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH MAIN SEVERE RISK BEING
MICROBURST WIND GUSTS UNTIL DARK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:

FRONT CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH
RATHER BROAD/WEAK CONVERGENCE ON FRONT AS EVIDENCED BY BOTH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. MAIN RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PROVIDING
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORMS OVERNIGHT.

SUN-TUE:

SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR
ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS NUMBERS
GENERALLY CLOSE AND WERE FOLLOWED.

WED-SAT:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM A BIT CLOSER RESOLVING THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXIS BUT AMPLITUDE OF PATTERN STILL PROBLEMATIC. THE
KEY OBSERVATION IS THAT THE 500MB HEIGHTS DO NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD...DESPITE A TRANITION TO MORE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ONCE HEAT BUILDS IN...TYPICALLY MODELS ARE FAR TOO QUICK
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND WOULD SIDE TOWARD A SLOWER EVOLUTION. AND
SINCE MOST OF LOW LEVEL COOLING CURRENTLY SHOWN BY LATEST MODELS
IS A FUNCTION OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND BACKDOOR FRONT...WILL
OPT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO STATUS QUO THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN AND ADD PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS
IF NEEDED WHEN THE SITUATION SHOWS MUCH MORE PREDICTABILITY.
-HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...CURRENTLY IT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH THE KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES AND IS ON THE DOOR STEP
OF KHUT. THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. KICT
AND KCNU WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KICT AROUND 20Z AND
THROUGH KCNU AROUND 00-01Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING
GREAT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KICT...KHUT AND KCNU
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  89  65  93 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      66  90  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
NEWTON          65  89  65  94 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        67  88  65  93 /  30   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  66  92 /  40   0   0  10
RUSSELL         63  90  65  96 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      65  89  64  95 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          67  91  67  97 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  90  66  95 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  90  62  93 /  40  10   0  10
CHANUTE         68  88  63  93 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            67  88  63  94 /  40  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  89  63  93 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-
053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-282130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
416 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST HEAT WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK STARTING THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

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