Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY PROMOTE RENEWED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CATEGORY WITH TEMPO IFR CATEGORY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AND RELEGATED TO VCTS LATER IN THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LARGE W-E BAND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER SRN KS APPEARS IN RESPONSE
TO 850-700 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. EXPECTING THIS AREA TO LIFT
NWD THIS AM...AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD OUT OF SRN HI PLAINS. MVFR
CIGS LOOK LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER
THIS PM INTO THIS EVE AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES FURTHER N.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THUNDERSTORM MODE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY THEREAFTER.

TDY-TONIGHT
SATELLITE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS RICH MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL YIELD SKINNY CAPE
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/I-135. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE AND 0-1KM HELICITY WHICH COULD MAKE
ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS TO WATCH FOR WOULD
BE DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND IF STORMS CAN ISOLATE THEMSELVES
OR DEVELOP A STRONGER UPDRAFT. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

SUN-MON
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO KANSAS FOR THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADES TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED: TUE-FRI
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTER BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HOT AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS FOR KANSAS...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GOING FORECAST.

JAKUB

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING INTO ARIZONA. GOES HIGH RESOLUTION
PROFILERS WERE SHOWING VERY BROAD AFFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
A WELL DEFINED JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. THIS JET
STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR MORE OF A TROPICAL FETCH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CEILINGS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT THEY MAY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AT RSL AND HUT TOMORROW MORNING IN THE MIDST OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
END THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL ONLY
MENTION A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK (10KFT) FOR NOW.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  72  95  73 / 100  30  10   0
HUTCHINSON      85  71  95  72 / 100  30  10  10
NEWTON          86  71  95  73 / 100  30  10  10
ELDORADO        87  71  94  72 / 100  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  73  95  73 /  80  30  10   0
RUSSELL         81  68  96  71 /  90  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      82  69  96  72 / 100  30  10  10
SALINA          82  70  97  73 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  70  95  72 / 100  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  73  92  73 /  60  20  10   0
CHANUTE         87  72  92  72 /  90  20  10   0
IOLA            86  72  92  72 / 100  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  73  92  72 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS AND SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70...AND TO THE WEST OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO EUREKA TO SEDAN
LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WITH A
A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AFFECT MUCH OF REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO EUREKA
TO SEDAN LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/CJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
852 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

KSZ050>053-067>072-082-083-094>096-201445-
ALLEN-BUTLER-CHASE-ELK-GREENWOOD-HARVEY-KINGMAN-MARION-MCPHERSON-
NEOSHO-RENO-RICE-SEDGWICK-WILSON-WOODSON-
852 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...ELK...GREENWOOD...
HARVEY...KINGMAN...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEOSHO...RENO...RICE...
SEDGWICK...WILSON AND WOODSON COUNTIES...

AT 848 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF THIS RAIN WAS LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH RATES OF ONE-HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

DARMOFAL

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