Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-WED MORNING:

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN RELATIVELY MOIST...LOW SHEARED...
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PROFILERS/VWP SHOW DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE SPINNING IN WESTERN KS. FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES FOR
LANDSPOUT POTENTIAL UNTIL SUNSET. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN HALF
MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS ON STORM COLLAPSE...BUT LACK OF DECENT
SHEAR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH HEAVY RAIN A
BIGGER THREAT. SUSPECT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL START TO WANE
AFTER 0600 UTC IN THE NW SECTIONS...BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT NIX
THOSE AREAS AFTER IT IS CLEAR HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. LESS CLEAR HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BY DAYBREAK AND INTO WED...SO WILL
NOT EXTEND WATCH AT THIS TIME.

WED AFTERNOON-THU:

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WANE IN SOUTHEAST KS WITH DRYING
MOVING INTO ALL OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. QUIET AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THU.

FRI-TUE:

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYNOPTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION. AS TO BE EXPECTED...VARIATIONS WITH BOTH IN MODEL
TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL GREATLY IMPACT RESULTANT WEATHER. SOME
COMMONALITIES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMUP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND OK BORDER COUNTIES ON
SAT. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S IN SOUTHEAST KS WITH
FULL MIXING. WHILE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL IS A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...DOES HANG
ON TO A BIT MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND BRINGS WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS WHICH VERIFIES WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KICT/KCNU IF STORMS COLLAPSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRPORT. MVFR CEILINGS WL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  72  53  77 /  80  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      55  73  53  77 /  80  10   0  10
NEWTON          53  71  53  76 /  80  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  71  52  75 /  90  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  72  52  76 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         51  70  51  79 /  60  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  69  52  78 /  70  10   0  10
SALINA          56  73  53  78 /  70  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       55  72  53  77 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  71  53  76 /  90  60  10  10
CHANUTE         59  71  51  75 /  90  50  10  10
IOLA            58  71  51  75 /  90  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  70  52  76 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
453 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
453 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY
RESULT FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HUTCHINSON TO IOLA. DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS COLLAPSES WOULD THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.  SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR ANY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. FLOODING COULD ALSO
BECOME A THREAT DUE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             SYLVIA                  37.96N 98.41W
06/02/2009  E1.25 INCH       RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DUNTEN

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