Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SALINA TO NEAR LYONS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS. LATEST LAPS DATA WAS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CAP OVER THAT
REGION. THEREFORE...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CONVECTION
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AND BUILD SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER
0-3KM SHEAR OF 30KTS WITH MINIMAL 3-6KM SHEAR. THIS MAY FAVOR MORE
LINEAR CELLS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE A LOT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG AND 0-3KM CAPES BETWEEN 100 AND
200 J/KG. THIS MAY FAVOR A COUPLE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. MEANWHILE...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LANDSPOUT TORNADOES ON THE BOUNDARY DUE TO
LIMITED SHEAR AND GOOD 0-3KM CAPE.

THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVES ACROSS WITH
THE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET. THIS WILL YIELD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO ANTHONY
LINE. THIS WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.

OVERNIGHT:
WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY-FRIDAY:
ANOTHER WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...WE PLAN ON KEEPING THINGS DRY. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

COX

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THERE ARE SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING INTO KRSL IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KHUT...KICT AND KCNU WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS...HOWEVER NOT AS CERTAIN THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KSLN SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SCHRECK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  68  44  73 /  80  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      53  68  42  74 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  67  43  73 /  60  10   0   0
ELDORADO        54  67  43  73 /  80  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  68  44  74 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELL         48  68  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      49  68  40  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          50  68  40  75 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  68  41  74 /  30  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     59  68  44  72 /  80  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  67  43  72 /  80  10   0   0
IOLA            56  67  43  72 /  80  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  68  44  71 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...INCLUDING HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE
STORMS MAY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE TOWARD EVENING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...SOUTHEAST OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO KINGMAN LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/JMC

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