Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNU FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL...KSLN...KHUT AND
KICT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

SCHRECK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A WIND SHIFT STRETCHING FROM HARPER TO WICHITA TO NEAR MARION AT
20Z. THE COLDER AIR IS STILL ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO
NEBRASKA...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...BUT THOSE WOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

THERE IS STILL A FLOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS IS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THURSDAY WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT...AND DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STORMS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STORMS ON FRIDAY...SO A FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT COUPLE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO WILL LEAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA.
DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS
FOR THE END OF THIS PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS AT THE CHANUTE TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR
HUT AND SLN AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE ICT TAF SITE AROUND
22Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A DECENT CAP IN
PLACE...BUT THE CEILINGS WERE CONTINUING TO CLIMB WHICH SHOULD
HELP ERODE THE CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER
4 PM OR SO. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE CNU TAF SITE
AND POSSIBLY ICT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT CNU BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. IT COULD ALSO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
MESOSCALE SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LITE UP.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  71  59  81 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      49  71  56  76 /  10  10  20  40
NEWTON          49  71  56  77 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        48  70  55  79 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  69  60  83 /  30  20  20  40
RUSSELL         43  71  54  76 /  10  10  20  40
GREAT BEND      44  71  53  77 /  10  10  20  40
SALINA          46  72  56  77 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       48  71  55  76 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     57  73  63  84 /  90  30  30  40
CHANUTE         52  72  61  82 /  90  30  30  40
IOLA            51  72  58  82 /  90  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    55  73  62  82 /  90  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
434 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-142145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
434 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING VERY UNSTABLE...THE
STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND BECOME SEVERE. THE SEVERE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY EAST OF I-35.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND FLOOD
PRODUCING RAINFALL. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. GOLF BALL OR LARGER HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED STORMS.
A BRIEF AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TORNADOES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD WANE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE FLOOD THREAT
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS COULD RETURN TO AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN
AND PROLONGED RAINFALL THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
HOW LONG THE RAIN COULD PERSIST...SO CONTINUE TO CHECK FOR LATER
UPDATES. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE. FLOODING WILL
ALSO BECOME A THREAT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK

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