River Flood Warning 99, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEING EXTENDED TIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SE KS
& MOST OF SC KS.

TODAY:
NUMEROUS SHRA/(+)TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER CNTRL & ERN KS THIS
MORNING IN REGION OF STRONG/DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY PRESENCE
OF MCV VENTURING E/SE OVER ERN KS. DOPPLER 1-HR ESTIMATES ARE THAT PARTS
OF ELK & CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES ARE RECEIVING 1.75 TO 2 INCHES AS RECENTLY
AS 3 AM CDT. WITH NEARLY STATIONARY W-E ORIENTED SFC-925MB FRONT DRAPED
ALONG KS/OK BORDER THRU THIS AFTERNOON INTERACTING WITH ULTRA-HIGH
OCTANE FUEL AS EVIDENCED BY PWS OF 150-200% HAVE EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TIL 7 PM CDT...BY WHICH TIME MID-LVL VORT LOBE WILL HAVE VACATED
THE SE KS PREMISES. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

REST OF THE WEEK:
SCENARIO PICTURED OVER PAST 2 NIGHTS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS
WELL. VIGOROUS 500-MB WAVE STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE E OVER NRN ROCKIES
THU NIGHT AROUND WHICH TIME IT SHOULD DROP ALMOST DUE S AS IT ENCOUNTERS
500-MB OMEGA BLOCK FORMING OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF MID-UPR LOW FRI THAT MAY SETTLE AS FAR
S AS NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TOWARD
CNTRL KS LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
SE KS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CUT-OFF UPR
LOW WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. THE ECMWF (& TO LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS) DEPICT THE CUT-OFF UPR LOW RETROGRADING TOWARD MT & WY LATE SAT NGT
& EARLY SUN. SUCH BEHAVIOR WOULD INDUCE THE AFORE-MENTIONED FRONT TO
STALL IT VENTURES ACROSS SE KS. SUCH A TRANSITION WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RA/TSRA FOR PRIMARILY THE SE HALF OF KICT COUNTRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE GFS & ECMWF DISPLAYING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY POSSESS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS TO
50-60% FROM FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. SE-NEIGHBORING WFOS ARE PICTURING
AN ALMOST IDENTICAL SCENARIO. THEREFORE WILL NEED TO KEEP FURTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN MIND FOR SE KS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WITH FAIRLY STAGNANT AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS KS ALL 5 TERMINALS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS & VSBYS AS NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING
+TSRA LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 2SM. (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC & SE KS)
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN LWR-DECK FLOW SLOWLY BACKING TO NELY COMPONENT
AM INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC THAT ALL 5 TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE
LOW-END MVFR CIGS (1,500FT) THRU LATE WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  66  79  64 /  60  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      76  66  79  63 /  50  30  30  10
NEWTON          76  65  79  63 /  60  40  30  10
ELDORADO        75  66  79  64 /  70  40  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  67  79  65 /  70  40  40  20
RUSSELL         77  64  79  60 /  40  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      77  64  79  61 /  50  30  20  10
SALINA          77  65  79  62 /  50  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       76  65  79  62 /  50  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  66  80  65 /  90  50  50  20
CHANUTE         73  66  79  64 /  90  50  40  20
IOLA            74  65  79  64 /  90  40  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    74  66  79  65 /  90  50  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-082-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1029 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...COUNTY FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING...AND WHILE THEY MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH GUSTS...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING.

ANY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     FLOOD            3 NE ANDALE             37.82N 97.59W
09/08/2009                   SEDGWICK           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ACROSS 215TH STREET WEST, BETWEEN 77TH AND
            85TH STREET NORTH.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     FLOOD            ANDALE                  37.79N 97.63W
09/08/2009                   SEDGWICK           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 247TH STREET WEST AND 61ST
            STREET NORTH.

&&

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
142 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

KSZ069-090715-
BUTLER-
142 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR DOUGLASS...OR 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND
FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

KETCHAM