River Flood Warning 91, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS.

THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
LEAST UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
KSLN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO EXPERIENCE A SEVERE STORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE SEVERITY OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS...THEY
SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE UPPER LOW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST.
WITH THIS LOW NOT MOVING VERY FAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI WITH EASTERN SECTIONS HAVING THE BEST
SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
IFR.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY NEXT SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT
WEEK.

TONIGHT
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST THEN
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

FRI-SUN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS SOCKED IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SEPTEMBER VALUES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
WOBBLE AROUND IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/LOW
INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED: MON-THU
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE
AROUND MID-WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST RUN
WITH TIMING/EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A NICE COOL DOWN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

JAKUB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH
HIGH END MVFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION TO VCTS FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS INSERT TEMPO GROUP AS CONFIDENCE ON WINDOW
OF TIMING INCREASES. ALSO EXPECT BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRENCE
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OF MVFR FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  75  61  80 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  76  59  81 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          62  75  59  80 /  50  40  10  10
ELDORADO        62  75  60  80 /  50  50  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  77  62  81 /  30  50  20  20
RUSSELL         59  76  58  80 /  50  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  76  59  81 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          60  74  60  79 /  60  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  75  59  80 /  60  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  76  61  80 /  40  70  30  30
CHANUTE         61  75  60  78 /  40  70  30  30
IOLA            61  74  59  78 /  50  60  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    62  76  61  79 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
538 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO
MARION LINE. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND COULD BRING MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP