Flood Watch 1, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
THROUGH THE REMIANDER OF THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG AND NEAR A
HARPER-WICHITA-EMPORIA LINE. THE FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT STORMS TO
INITIALLY FIRE OFF IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES EXIST. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING OUR GREATEST THREAT. COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY - MONDAY:
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EXTEND FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS PER SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MOST OF
CENTRAL KANSAS HAS BEEN PLACED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW WITH
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SINCE THE AXIS FOR THE FRONT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...THIS WILL BE THE SECOND NIGHT FOR THE RAIN.
BECAUSE OF THAT HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS ESSENTIALLY
ALONG AND ABOUT 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE TURNPIKE BEGINNING AT
18Z ON SUNDAY UNTIL 18Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL NOT BE OUT OF LINE IN THAT AREA.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR DRY WEATHER. SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TAKE WITH IT THE PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD STRETCH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FORCING THE
SURFACE FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING FAIRLY
ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TO WHERE IT EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN EASTERLY OR UPSLOPE FLOW FOR US. CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THEN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
INITIAL CONCERN IS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL 5
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE. CIGS OF 1,800-2,500FT
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THIS MORNING & EXPECT SUCH CIGS TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WITH WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
STRENGTHENING FURTHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT IFR CIGS WILL BE REALIZED OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL
KS FROM 26/06Z-26/12Z. AS SUCH WILL BRING CIGS OVER KRSL & KSLN
DOWN TO 800FT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD 26/12Z AS FRONT RANGE TROFFING RESTRENGTHENS...THEREBY
ENABLING WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO ENSUE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
26/06Z. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN SURGE N THEREAFTER & LIKELY
REACH THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER LATE SUN MORNING. THE WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION WILL NO DOUBT PLAY VITAL ROLE IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSRA OVER ESPECIALLY SC KS THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT &
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH TSRA APPLIED TO MOST
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  75  56  69 /  60  70  80  50
HUTCHINSON      50  75  50  66 /  60  70  70  50
NEWTON          53  73  51  64 /  60  70  80  50
ELDORADO        58  73  53  66 /  60  70  80  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  75  64  72 /  60  70  80  60
RUSSELL         43  79  48  62 /  40  50  60  30
GREAT BEND      45  79  50  63 /  40  50  60  30
SALINA          46  75  53  64 /  60  70  70  40
MCPHERSON       49  74  52  65 /  60  70  70  50
COFFEYVILLE     64  80  64  72 /  40  60  80  70
CHANUTE         64  78  66  69 /  50  60  80  80
IOLA            63  77  66  67 /  50  60  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    64  79  65  71 /  40  60  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ052-053-068>070-083-092-093.

&&

ELDER/SCHMINKE

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