Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...PRECIP/CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE
MOISTURE FLUX ON LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF ALSO AIDING ASCENT...
WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PREVIOUSLY
SATURATED AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ONLY ROUND ONE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST FROM THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH WILL ALSO SHEAR EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
SOUTHWARD SINKING SURFACE FRONT...AS IT MOVES INTO KANSAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND
THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER TODAYS ROUND...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE RISK WILL ALSO BE WITH
US INTO THURSDAY. WILL STILL TRY AND DRY THINGS OUT FOR A TIME BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE SHUNTED TOO FAR SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CEILING
HEIGHTS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AND FOG POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ASCENT
BETWEEN 300-305K. RUC IS SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THIS
REGION AROUND 1000J/KG WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE ACCORDING TO
00Z RAOB FROM DODGE CITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH RSL SEEING THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS 09Z AND
SLN/HUT TOWARDS 11Z. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD EAST AS
THE MORNING WEARS ON. CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY TRICKY DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL HELP DRAW IN MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON THE CEILINGS AND
KEEP THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY (1-2KT) DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO AND DROPPED THEM INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND 08Z OR
SO AT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES. THE CNU TAF SITE STILL HAS A GOOD
SHOT OF SEEING DENSE FOG TOWARDS 10Z DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MID MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND
CAUSES CONDITIONS TO BE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  62  74  56 /  70  40  30  60
HUTCHINSON      72  61  72  52 /  70  40  30  60
NEWTON          70  62  73  55 /  70  50  40  60
ELDORADO        71  63  74  58 /  70  50  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  63  76  60 /  70  50  40  60
RUSSELL         72  56  65  46 /  50  50  40  60
GREAT BEND      73  59  68  47 /  50  40  30  60
SALINA          71  60  69  49 /  70  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       71  61  71  51 /  70  50  40  60
COFFEYVILLE     72  63  76  62 /  70  60  50  60
CHANUTE         71  63  74  60 /  70  60  50  60
IOLA            71  63  74  59 /  70  60  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  63  75  61 /  70  60  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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