Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WWUS84 KHUN 212301
RFWHUN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009


ALZ001>007-016-220015-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090321T2300Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
CULLMAN-
601 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA HAVE BEGUN TO
RISE ABOVE 20 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

$$

CBD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

.UPDATE...TO ADD RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ALABAMA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

REGION IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT CARRYING REMNANT
CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES INTO THE MID S AND TN VALLEY. THE THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SHOALS WESTWARD...WHICH MAY LIMIT
COOLING SOME TONIGHT. OUR EASTERN VALLEYS ON THE OTHER HAND COULD
DIP INTO THE U30S-L40S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING ACROSS SRN
AL/GA HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVECT NWD...AND IS MIXING OUT A GREAT DEAL
AS IT DOES SO. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME VARIABLE AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT RIDGE TOPS WHERE SLY
FLOW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. I LOOK FOR A NEAR WEATHER CARBON COPY
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS LOCKED INTO THE 8H-7H
RIDGE POSITION. MET MOS TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH AS COMPARED TO
CORRESPONDING NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...SO WILL OPT TO STAY NEARER
MAV/NAM RAW VALUES.

LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAIN EPISODES COULD UNFOLD FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND DEEP SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
TN VALLEY. BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND TIMING
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT AMONG EACH OTHER ON THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES.

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER TROF NOW DIGGING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL PRODUCE A CONVECTIVE
BAND/SQUALL LINE INTO THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS TROF LIFTS NWD...IT IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT DIGS FURTHER INTO THE SRN U.S. THE 12Z GFS IS
NOW COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF IN
THIS REGARD. THESE SYSTEMS ALTOGETHER COULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN
TOTALS...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HERE ARE SOME
SPECIFICS...BUT THESE CERTAINLY CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE.

ON MONDAY...AN INITIAL BROAD BUT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FILTERS
INTO THE RIDGE POSITION BRINGING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS EWD FROM THE PLAINS/OZARK REGION. AT THIS POINT...THE LOWER
ATMO APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE MAIN GULF FETCH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF STATES...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING 8H
MOISTURE ADVECTION/CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN PORTION OF RIDGE
FROM THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND ACROSS FL/GA/SRN AL LATE ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP STILL LOOKS QUITE UNLIKELY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SCHC IN FAR NW AL. THE FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OUTRUN THE FRONTAL PROGRESS AND REACH NW AL
LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING.  I HAVE RAISED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREAWIDE. GIVEN MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...I SUSPECT THIS LINE WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY UPON ARRIVAL ON WED. THIS COULD CHANGE DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE MCS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE
SOMEWHERE RIGHT OVER THE TN VALLEY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
KEEPS AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN PLACE. ANOTHER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...PROBABLY OVER TX. ATTM...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/OPER
GFS/ECMWF LIFT THE WARM FRONT NWD ON THU NIGHT/FRI. GIVEN THAT
PLENTY OF CONVECTION MAY ERUPT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY IF IT WILL INDEED LIFT N OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT MAIN
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING THE
A MORE PRONOUNCED THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN
INITIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROGS. BEING SEVERAL DAYS
IN ADVANCE...SPECIFICS ARE LIMITED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  70  43  70  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        41  70  44  71  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CULLMAN       42  67  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  40  67  43  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   41  68  44  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    36  69  39  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...FRANKLIN AL...LAUDERDALE...
LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN.
TN...NONE.
&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1259 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-221000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1259 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE TIMING AND
STRENGTH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.