Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.UPDATE...FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH APPROACHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL) PREVAILS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
EARLIER. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MSAS INDICATING
A THETA-E N-S AXIS FROM SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TN TO CULLMAN AL.
SBCAPES APPEAR TO BE IN THE 1000-3000 J/KG.

RADAR/SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG/SEVERE MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND S KY RAPIDLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NE AL
AREAS BEFORE PROCEEDING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER A BIT FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THIS
FACT WILL LIKELY NOT KEEP THESE STORMS FROM WEAKENING UNTIL MOVING
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ANALYSIS OF A WEAK WAVE BEHIND THE MCS
ALONG WITH A (CURRENTLY) STAIONARY FRONT OVER N TN AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER W TN...INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FROM 09-12Z. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...NW AL IS THE MOST UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THIS
AREA TO BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONGER STORMS. PWATS ARE STILL
AROUND 2.0 INCHES WHICH MEANS THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADJUSTED POPS/WX AND SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS ALONG WITH TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009/ AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PARADE OF
MCS/S AND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES. THE PARADE IS NOT OVER EITHER...AS
WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A STALLED/SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE IT GETS HERE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...I MAY ONLY CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
FILTERING THAT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT AND HIGH POPS GIVEN BY THE MOS...WILL RAISE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE LIKELY RANGE...PERHAPS CATEGORICAL IF A
FAVORED AREA CAN BE DISCERNED. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS PWATS CROSS ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND PERHAPS GET
OVER 2.25 INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF RAIN.
CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS EITHER...BUT
THIS IS A SECONDARY THREAT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MID-MORNING...THEN
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT HOLDS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AS WE ARE FORECASTING. CAPE VALUES
OF 4-6 KJ/KG ARE BEING FORECASTED BY THE MODELS...AND AS SPC NOTED
IN THEIR DAY 2 SVR DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. POPS TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE MISLEADING
SINCE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCE IS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT SCTD
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THE SFC FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED DOWN TOWARD THE AREA BY THE
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...BUT WHERE IT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT IS STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE POP ALL NIGHT
THOUGH ULTIMATELY THINGS MIGHT END UP DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND SO IT
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
THE SFC FRONT QUICKLY EITHER RETREATS OR WASHES OUT ON TUESDAY. THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS
BEGIN TO PUMP A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65...BOTH DAYS. ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAVE BOTH
DAYS DRY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE SOUPY AIRMASS.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE AREA...THE
TROUGH PATTERN RESUMES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
DROPPING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA AND POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF THAT. WILL ADD POPS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HIGHEST IN TN...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DIVIDE.

WILL KEEP DECENT RAIN CHANCES AROUND AS THE NEXT SFC FRONT JUST
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES THERE. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH PATTERN WILL GET THE FRONT THROUGH...
LEAVING WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A REALLY NICE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ NO CHANGES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 5-7 HOURS AT BOTH TAF SITES. GIVEN THE
RAINFALL AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE...DROPPING VIS TO MVFR BY 04-05Z. TSRA IS POSSIBLE BTWN
10-14Z AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM AR/W TN TO N
AL POTENTIALLY DROPPING VIS TO IFR. VIS/CIG SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
AT BOTH TAF SITES BTWN 15-16Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
MOVES OVER REGION BEGINNING 19-20Z DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED SHRA ACTIVITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...JE/23
UPDATE/AVIATION...SL.77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-130630-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
718 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
CAUSE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KDW/SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

ALZ009-TNZ097-130315-
FRANKLIN-JACKSON-
927 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALTO TO
FRANCISCO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF ALTO...FRANCISCO...WINCHESTER...DECHERD...BEANS CREEK...
MAXWELL...BELVIDERE...HUNTLAND...COWAN AND LARKIN...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E PETERSBURG          35.33N 86.58W
07/12/2009                   LINCOLN            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON PETERSBURG CHESTNUT
            RIDGE RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0905 PM     LIGHTNING        11 NNE LYNCHBURG        35.42N 86.26W
07/12/2009                   MOORE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AND ON FIRE ON HWY 41A NEAR THE
            BEDFORD...COFFEE...MOORE COUNTY LINE.

&&

CCROWE

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