Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHERE THE MOST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
COLLECTING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL SHOWS SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...PUMPING IN A MID-LEVEL PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AS NOTED
ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. S/SWRLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE...FEEDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL /WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES/ THAT ARE ANTICIPATED. ATTM...NUMEROUS
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MOST RECENT PRODUCT IS THE TORNADO WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR
DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON ARE 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
BIRMINGHAM ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MORE
STABLE AIR...IN WHICH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
NOTED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE NAM PUSHES THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA THE FASTEST...
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE PRECIP THE LONGEST. THE GFS IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO. AM LEANING TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH THE PRECIP PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HAVING SAID THAT...IF THE RAIN CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE AREA...THIS OUTCOME COULD BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

WITH THE PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM...AM EXPECTING THE
INITIAL TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SECONDARY TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AS WELL...SO THIS
WAS NOTED IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
MOS GUIDANCE IN WRN ARES. AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS
/ERN AREAS/ WERE HEDGED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME ARE REGARDING
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A MUCH SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND INSTEAD...HAS A GULF LOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER SRN TX. THE GFS PROGS
THE FROPA FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SINCE ARND 18 HOURS OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING EXISTS IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD AS-IS. THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
IS EXACTLY HOW COLD THE SHOT OF COLD AIR DELIVERED WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE. ECMWF HAS 850H TEMPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BETWEEN
-10 AND -12 DEGREES C. THE GFS HAS -4 TO -6 DEGREES C. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS MADE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY. AT THIS TIME...STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE...GIVE OR TAKE A TWEAK HERE OR THERE. EITHER WAY...THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THIS PATTERN TAKE SHAPE IF IN
FACT THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  46  34  53  33 / 100  40  10   0   0
SHOALS        42  47  34  55  33 / 100  30  10   0   0
CULLMAN       44  46  35  54  34 / 100  40  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  43  44  34  51  32 / 100  40  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   46  47  35  54  34 / 100  40  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    44  48  34  53  32 / 100  50  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-070400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PERIODS OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF STREET AND
CREEK FLOODING...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN BANDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...THE RAINFALL WILL CREATE A
FLOODING THREAT ON LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSULT THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON THE
FLOODING SITUATION.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
APPROACHING 50 MPH...WHICH MAY CARRY AN INCREASED RISK OF DOWNED
TREES WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AND AROUND MIDNIGHT CLOSE TO THE
GEORGIA STATE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

BCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
138 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ008-010-062030-
DE KALB-MARSHALL-
138 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB AND EASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 138 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FROM WHITON TO BOAZ...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  KILPATRICK...HOPEWELL.
  RODENTOWN...LATHAMVILLE.
  POWELL...SKIRUM.
  SYLVANIA...PEEKS CORNER.
  LEBANON...PINE RIDGE.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ010-062100-
DE KALB-
235 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EXTREME EASTERN DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL
3 PM CST...

AT 235 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ADAMSBURG...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT
PAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DESOTO STATE PARK.
  MENTONE.
  ALABAMA HIGHWAY 117.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
237 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ008-062100-
MARSHALL-
237 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
CST...

AT 237 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BLOUNT COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF
MARSHALL COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HYATT...DOUGLAS.
  HIGH POINT...RABBIT TOWN.
  BOAZ...MCVILLE.
  ALBERTVILLE.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

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