Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY LIMITED TODAY
AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE THOUGH WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 AND TEMPS MOVING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND EXPECTED PREFRONTAL
TSTM ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME.
CHANGES ARE IN STORE...FINALLY PULLING THE AREA OUT OF THIS WET
WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS THAT MIGHT NOT
ALLOW A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PCPN...IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS...IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AL/MS BORDER LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY TO BE FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES EAST THOUGH...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A LOW-END
CHANCE POP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MANY AREAS COULD STAY DRY. WILL BE
HUMID THOUGH WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DROP MUCH BELOW 70.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS OF DRYSLOTTING BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL
BAND...SO I AM NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE
ANY RAIN AT ALL IF THE PREFRONTAL RAIN WEAKENS BEFORE ARRIVING. EAST
OF THE SHOALS...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD QUICKLY REDEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS REMOVED NORTH ALABAMA FROM
THE DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. I TEND TO AGREE WITH
THIS. CERTAINLY SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WX WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN FRIDAY IN
SOME SPOTS...SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE AREA
YET. HOWEVER...SIGNALS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARD DRY WEATHER
IN THIS TIMEFRAME...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS IN BOTH PERIODS SLIGHTLY.
FOR A CHANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER WARM BUT NOT ALL THAT HUMID AS A
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE
MID 80S BUT LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST IS BEING SENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THERE ARE SOME
POTENTIAL ISSUES. A LARGE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
THAT ACTIVITY PERSISTING DOWNSTREAM ON SATURDAY. I WOULD FILE THIS
IN THE UNLIKELY CATEGORY...BUT A SATURDAY SURPRISE STORM IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE ON SUNDAY ALSO.

ACTUALLY...IN THOSE CASES...IF IT HAPPENS ONE DAY IT KEEPS HAPPENING
ON ALL SUBSEQUENT DAYS UNTIL THE BOUNDARIES/AIRMASS ARE PUSHED OUT
OF THE AREA. SINCE I AM NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING IT TO BEGIN...I
WILL LEAVE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIR AT BEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED.
IF THERE IS CONSENSUS...IT IS THAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SYSTEM (OR
MORE THAN ONE) WILL START AFFECTING THE AREA AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS IN FULL FORCE. THIS COMBO OBVIOUSLY LEADS TO A RETURN OF
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FAST FACT...
AT HUNTSVILLE...OUR CURRENT YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 28.51
INCHES IS THE WETTEST AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR SINCE 1994...AND
JUST 0.14 INCH SHY OF THE TOTAL FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR 2007.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  83  63  80  61 /  30  40  20  20  10
SHOALS        67  85  61  81  59 /  40  20  20  20  10
CULLMAN       66  82  61  78  60 /  30  40  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  82  62  79  60 /  30  40  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   67  84  62  81  60 /  30  70  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  82  62  80  59 /  30  80  20  20  10
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JE/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-281000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
STORMS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THE MOMENT...AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

SS/CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             ROGERSVILLE             34.83N 87.29W
05/27/2009  E0.50 INCH       LAUDERDALE         AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN ROGERSVILLE.

&&

JE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
430 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ001-004-005-272200-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-
430 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE AND LIMESTONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLIVER...OR 16 MILES WEST OF ATHENS...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  COXEY...
  RIPLEY...
  CAIRO.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
447 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ016-272215-
CULLMAN-
447 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRANE HILL...OR 16 MILES WEST OF CULLMAN...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CRANE HILL.
  JONES CHAPEL.
  LOGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ001-004-005-272245-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-
519 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE AND LIMESTONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RED BANK...OR 19 MILES WEST OF ATHENS...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CADDO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  OLIVER.
  COXEY...
  RIPLEY...
  CHALYBEATE SPRINGS...
  CADDO.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB

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