Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM A STORM
AT EITHER TAF SITE...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
THIS AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SAT MORNING AND IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
SITES. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14-18Z AT
KMSL/15Z-19Z AT KHSV. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHRA ACTIVITY COULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE 12Z SPC 4KM WRF AND
12Z HI-RES WRF HINT AT SOME CONVECTION OVER NW ALABAMA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THUS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE WET. WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OF COURSE THIS
WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY BUT
WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING. CONSEQUENTLY...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS IN LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUICKER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING...I BELIEVE IT WILL MAINLY BE OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SKIES MAY CLEAR
BEFORE SUNSET. MOS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH MAX TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY. THE MAV ACTUALLY HAS A HIGH OF 61 FOR HUNTSVILLE.
LIKE YESTERDAY I OPTED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH FORECAST HIGHS...BUT
NOT AS FAR AS MOS. SUN NIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
40S AND SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS /THINK LYNCHBURG/ COULD
POSSIBLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.

IF YOURE IN TO SUNNY SKIES...DRY AIR...AND TEMPS IN THE 70S LIKE I
AM...THEN MONDAY IS GOING TO BE A GREAT DAY FOR YOU...WEATHER WISE
AT LEAST. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN...BECAUSE SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.

-DL

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK... KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ALSO WORTH NOTING IN THE EXTENDED IS THE FACT THAT MODELS ARE STILL
KEEPING A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GOM/WRN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THAT THE
FORECAST IS 240 HRS FROM NOW...A LOT CAN OBVIOUSLY CHANGE.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING NOW THAT MORE MODELS
ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

-12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...AMP.24
DISCUSSION...DL/CA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BCC/CBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ALZ009-160045-
JACKSON-
704 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STEVENSON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BASS...RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN FACKLER AND SKYLINE
AND JUST NORTHWEST OF SCOTTSBORO.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

KULA

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