Tornado Warning 44, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM DFW TO ACT TO HDO. THE FRONT
WAS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH REGARD
TO WHEN THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND HAS
THE FRONT THROUGH CLL BY 00Z AND CLEARS THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS. HOWEVER...THE NAM 12 AND
OTHER LOCAL MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING CONSIDERABLY AND
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH 09Z. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH IS
HANGING BACK SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE SLOWING FRONTAL SPEED ALSO
HAS MERIT. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS CRITICAL TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...AM LEANING
TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD PROGGED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE FURTHER WEST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL CENTER. THE SHIFT IN THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT
RAINFALL TOTALS. TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
GIVE SOME AREAS SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS. PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY FROM TRAINING STORMS TODAY. THINK WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT WITH SOME
SPOTS THAT RECEIVE TRAINING...GETTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. WILL
FRESHEN THE FFA TO UPDATE RAINFALL TOTALS.

FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE
IN DOWNDRAFTS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES THROUGH 06Z.

WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL SO SOME MINOR FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

THE 850 MB FRONT WILL STILL HANG BACK AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE 850 MB BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST.

THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOK GREAT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. 43

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LATEST COLD FRONT SWINGING
STRONG OFFSHORE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRIDAYS DAWN. SEAS HAVE
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY GULF
FETCH...IN THE 8 TO 11 FOOT RANGE AHEAD OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH UNDERSTOOD...A REMINDER THAT MARINE THUNDERSTORMS RIDING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND CHAOTIC SEA
BEHAVIOR DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WARRANTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RELAX JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE
WATERS...BUT WITH A DECENT SHOT OF NEAR-SURFACE 50F AIR COMING OVER
WARMER MID-70 F DEGREE WATER...IT WONT TAKE LONG TO BE BACK ABOVE
SCA WITH THOSE 20-30 KT (GALE FORCE GUST) NORTHERLIES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  63  46  71  49 /  90  50  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  65  47  70  49 / 100  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  66  57  71  60 / 100  80  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300930-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
337 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM TONIGHT AND 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 5 TO 8 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS IN COMBINATION WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN WILL END FRIDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WATER WILL REMAIN A HAZARD
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS AS FORECAST.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

TXZ163-164-177-291900-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-WALKER-
1255 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...STRONG STORM OVER WALKER COUNTY...

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PENNINGTON...CRABBS
PRAIRIE...TRINITY...RIVERSIDE...LOVELADY AND HUNTSVILLE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3118 9508 3090 9528 3089 9531 3083 9533
      3062 9548 3070 9567 3132 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 205DEG 35KT 3074 9553

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
138 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

TXZ163-164-179-291915-
HOUSTON-POLK-TRINITY-
138 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN POLK COUNTY...

AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTH OF APPLE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT
50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH PORTIONS OF POLK AND TRINITY COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...APPLE SPRINGS AND
CORRIGAN.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3140 9495 3135 9495 3133 9490 3129 9488
      3126 9488 3124 9485 3117 9482 3115 9482
      3112 9478 3110 9469 3081 9492 3084 9512
      3145 9503 3145 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 191DEG 42KT 3092 9500