Tornado Warning 39, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WWUS54 KHGX 032025
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

TXC239-481-032045-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-091003T2045Z/
WHARTON TX-JACKSON TX-
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR JACKSON
AND WHARTON COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
TORNADO ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GANADO...OR  10 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF EDNA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. LARGE HAIL MAY BE 
POSSIBLE FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF GANADO TO NEAR LOUISE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  LOUISE AND CORDELE

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2917 9662 2907 9623 2898 9627 2897 9631
      2890 9631 2884 9634 2901 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 282DEG 11KT 2905 9650

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS SW EXTENDING ENE TO JUST
SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND. IMPULSES IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY
PRODUCING AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL TX WHICH ARE APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN ZONES. BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NW GULF
INCLUDING OVER COASTAL ZONES...MOVING SLOWLY ENE. AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING POPS AREA WIDE LATE TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS MAINLY FOR REST OF THIS
MORNING INCREASING CHANCES WESTERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE REST OF ZFPHGX ON TRACK 37

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TODAY
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.  ANTICIPATE WIDESREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TOO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

44

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009/
AT 08Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LAREDO TO PORT O CONNOR
LINE...EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF. THE WARM FRONT WILL TREK
SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS THAT VALUES ARE ALREADY
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS ENTRENCHED
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE SO
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME WEAKLY DIVERGENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DUE TO THE DISTURBANCES AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. ON
SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK IN THE MORNING BUT
INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY
HIGH WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. NEITHER THE GFS OR
THE NAM SHOW A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN PLACE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS A
NE-SW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LFK TO UTS TO 11R. IF
A BOUNDARY DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER POPS NORTH DUE TO STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON SUNDAY AS THE
BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND FEEL FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH
AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL MAKE
IT FEEL RATHER OPPRESSIVE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN TOP THE
100 DEGREE MARK AT TIMES MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE INLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STALL OVER THE EXTREME
NORTH. THE FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF A SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. 43

PREV MARINE.../ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009/
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONSHORE
FETCH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH SCEC CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. 44

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY WILL BE OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPREADING AREAWIDE
DURING THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND AN INCH
NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE WILL BE
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. FUNNEL CLOUDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO...SUNDAY

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH SO IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM HUMID AIR BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS IF TRAINING DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH NEAR THE COAST.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

TXZ226-235-032015-
JACKSON-WHARTON-
225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY...MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORALES...CORDELE AND
GANADO.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTABLE AUTOMOBILE
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2925 9667 2924 9665 2925 9662 2923 9636
      2895 9651 2912 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 292DEG 11KT 2917 9671