Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
WHICH HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
THREATS. RESPECTIVE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/CANCELED
AS EXPECT THIS TO BE THE END OF CONECTION FOR NOW. POSSIBLE A
SECOND JET STREAK COMING THROUGH W TX COULD KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WORK INTO E TX.
WILL KEEP SOME 30-50 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND STABILIZED BY THE QLCS.
IF ANYTHING CONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE HAD SOME TIME TO RECOVER. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

AVIATION...
BAND OF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING FROM CHAMBERS TO GALVESTON TO SOUTHEAST
MATAGORDA COUNTIES MID EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE 10 PM. MESO-HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND WITH LINGERING -SHRA/-TSRA
AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. 37

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
EVENT STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN AS THE MCS REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE AREA. PER NESDIS...ANOTHER SLUG OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWS (MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER/MID TX COAST) EXPECTED TO REACH US
SHORTLY. WHILE ITS VALUES (AOA 1.7) ARE A LOWER THAN WEEKS (AOA
2.1)...NOT SURE THAT IT WILL MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM THE LAST BATCHES OF HVY
RAIN. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG MESO FEATURES/FACTORS WILL BE ISSUING
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THERE IS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE THE BEST TRAINING WILL SET UP.

WILL BE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH MID WEEK (AT LEAST) WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF MORE SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST (DESPITE A
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW). WE COULD GET ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT BY FRI
AND SAT TO DECREASE POPS...BUT GOING BY THE EXTENDED RANGE PROGS
(ESP ECMWF) WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN/STORMS SUN.
41

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCSTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG S/SELY
WINDS AND THE LONG ONSHORE FETCH/ELEVATED SEAS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  69  84  70 /  50  40  30  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  83  70  85  71 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  79  73  81  73 /  80  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...37

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-282100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
347 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER MOVING STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH...BUT ISOLATED TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A TYPICAL SPRING TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

TXZ198-199-212-213-280930-
GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...
WILLIS...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...
PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE
116 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

CLUSTERING STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. A COUPLE
OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THAT WILL CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AROUND THE CITY OF HOUSTON. THESE
STORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA TO NEAR PENNY SIZE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
238 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CYPRESS                 29.97N 95.70W
04/28/2009                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR A FOOT OF WATER OVER MANY ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND
            CYPRESS. WATER OVER ROAD AT HIGHWAY 290 AMD MUESCHKE
            ROAD. LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK AT HOCKLEY GOING OVER BANKS.

&&

BLOOD