Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EVENT STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN AS THE MCS REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE AREA. PER NESDIS...ANOTHER SLUG OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWS (MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER/MID TX COAST) EXPECTED TO REACH US
SHORTLY. WHILE ITS VALUES (AOA 1.7) ARE A LOWER THAN WEEKS (AOA
2.1)...NOT SURE THAT IT WILL MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM THE LAST BATCHES OF HVY
RAIN. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG MESO FEATURES/FACTORS WILL BE ISSUING
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THERE IS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE THE BEST TRAINING WILL SET UP.

WILL BE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH MID WEEK (AT LEAST) WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF MORE SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST (DESPITE A
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW). WE COULD GET ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT BY FRI
AND SAT TO DECREASE POPS...BUT GOING BY THE EXTENDED RANGE PROGS
(ESP ECMWF) WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN/STORMS SUN.
41

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCSTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG S/SELY
WINDS AND THE LONG ONSHORE FETCH/ELEVATED SEAS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  69  84  70 /  80  30  30  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  83  70  85  71 /  70  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  79  73  81  73 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-282100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
347 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER AND
SLOWER MOVING STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH...BUT ISOLATED TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A TYPICAL SPRING TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.