High Surf Advisory 7, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI JAN 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY
THE WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF STABLE LOW CLOUDS HAS REACHED THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...KEEPING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION TO THE ISLANDS...AS
MOST RAIN GAGES ACROSS THE STATE REGISTERED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. MORNING SOUNDINGS...SPECIALLY
LIHUE...CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PRETTY STRONG INVERSION NEAR 6K FT.
THUS AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE AND IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN THE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO PREVAIL THEN.

WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA HAVE FINALLY
WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THIS MORNING. HENCE HAVE
CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.

THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS CERTAINTY
WILL NOT BEHAVE ACCORDINGLY COMPARING TO THE PREVIOUS ONES...AS
FORECAST CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY THEN RESUME ITS COURSE TO REACH KAUAI MONDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
ISLANDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RESULTING IN WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST CHARTS
STILL INDICATE THERE WILL BE MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIALLY...AND THE FRONTAL BAND SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
ISLANDS DURING ITS PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE SOME DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
STILL EXISTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING THEREFORE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. LATEST FORECAST
CHARTS NOW HAVE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE ISLANDS AND DISSIPATING BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKENING WINDS.

LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS THAT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PROBABLY WILL VARY A BIT BEFORE SETTLING ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...
READINGS FROM BUOY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO HINT
SOME LONGER PERIOD FORERUNNER OF THE PENDING NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS
NEXT SWELL EPISODE SHOULD BRING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SHALL MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL AS THE SUBSIDING AND
INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AT TIMES. HENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
AFFECTED WATERS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE PAILOLO CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL...WINDWARD OAHU WATERS KAIWI
CHANNEL AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS...MAUI
COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

HUI