Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Honolulu, HI

505 
WGHW70 PHFO 111807
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
807 AM HST SUN JAN 11 2009

HIC009-111816-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090111T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY-
807 AM HST SUN JAN 11 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN
MAUI COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAUI BETWEEN KIHEI AND 
WAILEA HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT RUNOFF IS STILL OCCURRING AND STREAMS 
WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LAT...LON 2081 15651 2081 15632 2063 15632 2063 15651

$$
POWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
645 AM HST SUN JAN 11 2009

.UPDATE...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS IS OVER MAUI
COUNTY AS OF 645 AM. THE BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE BAND. WE WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECASTS TO
REMOVE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF MAUI.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING
MORE RAIN TO THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...400 AM...
THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND ENVELOPED KAUAI AND MOVED ACROSS OAHU FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SUPPORTED BY A SHARP BUT NARROW TROUGH ALOFT. THE
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE BAND ENDED UP DROPPING
FROM ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER KAUAI AS IT PASSED
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...AND WAS ON TRACK TO DO MUCH THE SAME OVER
OAHU. THIS RAINFALL ACCUMULATED IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AT MOST
SITES...SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCAL PROBLEMS...BUT THE SPEED OF THE LINE SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE
SQUALL LINE...BUT SOUTHEASTERLIES PICKED UP AGAIN NOT TOO FAR BEHIND
IT...IMPLYING THAT THE FRONT ITSELF REMAINED CLOSER TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE REST
OF THE STATE IN THE MEANTIME...PUSHING A FEW SHOWERS ONTO SOUTHEAST
SLOPES.

GUIDANCE AGREES IN PREDICTING THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND TO CONTINUE ON
TO MAUI COUNTY THE AFTERNOON AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS IT GOES. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT CERTAINLY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL WEAKEN...AND ITS ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THOUGH
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS STILL MAY TURN HEAVY...OVERALL TOTALS WILL
DIMINISH. EVEN SO...SNOW OR ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WEAK HIGH MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TRADE WINDS
TO THE STATE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PUSH DOWN OVER THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SO TRADE WINDS WILL BE ABSENT. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BAND MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A SWELL PRODUCED BY A LOW NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL RAISE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SHORES FACING NORTH AND WEST TODAY.
COMBINED SEAS WILL EXCEED THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

ANOTHER LOW IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY EAST OF JAPAN. SWELL FROM THAT LOW
WILL REACH THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE LARGE
ENOUGH SURF ALONG SHORES FACING NORTH AND WEST TO REQUIRE A WARNING.
ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE MORE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI
AND MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON HST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY
FOR WATER NORTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

RYSHKO/DONALDSON