Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL ONLY ALLOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BEFORE A BERMUDA HIGH
BEGINS PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY
CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AT 12Z AND
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
ALMOST ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BEGINNING TO BURN OFF WITH STRONG HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 BY MIDDAY...WITH ONLY THE
MID COAST A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HEATING...SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND APPROACHING IMPULSE EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG STORMS HAVE ADDED ENHANCED
WORDING TO THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION...FORECAST UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT A DECREASE IN POPS BEHIND
CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF WRN ME ATTM. 500MB
THAT TRIGGERED THIS CONVECTION EASILY SEEN OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND ON
WV IMAGE...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE THE CWA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY OVERNIGHT OR EVEN YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...BUT LEFT POPS MAINLY 20 OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHING A
FE HOURS OF SUNRISE INLAND...BUT WILL TAKE LONGER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE IT MAY HANG AROUND UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE 500MB PATTERN...AT LEAST
WHEN CHECKED AGAINST WV IMAGERY...BUT PRECIP IS A BIT TOO
WIDESPREAD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO GRID SCALING. STILL MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT DECENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
SCT CONVECTION TODAY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS...AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS
LOOKS QUITE HIGH...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF NAM TIMING IS CORRECT AND FRONT CROSSES CWA
DURING THE WARMEST PART OF DAY...BUT GIVEN THE GFS CURRENT HANDLE
ON THINGS WILL LEAN TOWARD IT...WHICH WOULD PUT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SVR IN ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT WE WILL
SEE CLUSTERS OF STORMS. RATHER THAN A LINE...OUT AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND COVERAGE WILL NOT WARRANT POPS MUCH MORE THAN 50%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY EVE ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT EXITS THIS AREA...BUT...SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN THE N...WITH TDS DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MTNS TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME FOG LOOKS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT..AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OUT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THROUGH MID WEEK TO SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE SOME DEGREE OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE.  DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S INTO NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE STICKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALSO. ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TUESDAY...LACK OF DYNAMICS SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY. MORE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WILL RE-INTRODUCE
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AND AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF OVERNIGHT
FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS WILL DIMINISH FIRST INLAND THIS
MORNING...BUT COULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AT
KPSM/KPWM/KAUG. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING HZ AS WELL...BUT THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WELL MIXED BY MIDDAY. SOME
SCT CONVECTION COULD FIND ITS WAY THRU ONE OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL CHANCES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS ATTM.
VFR THIS EVE...BUT COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG. THEREAFTER...AREAS OF
DAYTIME MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTIONS AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA LVL...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THRU TONIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.  SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND 1 NM
OR LESS IN NIGHTTIME AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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