Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE FRIDAY...BEFORE
REACHING COASTAL MAINE SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPLITTING...ONE LINE TO THE SOUTH...AND ANOTHER HEADING FOR
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL ADJUST POPS REFLECT THIS...WITH
LIKELY POPS UP NORTH AND WITH A LINE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...THOUGH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THREAT
FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LINGERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST BEYOND 06Z...WILL RE-EVALUATE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WILL WE ACTUALLY HIT 80F TOMORROW? IF SO...THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST
TIME (IN PORTLAND) SINCE MAY 26TH. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW
MACHINE GUIDANCE HOWEVER WITH MARITIME CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE.

RAIN FROM APPROACHING COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN
THE 2ND PERIOD...HOWEVER...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EJECTING TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. IMPROVING WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEYOND THAT WOULD EXPECT SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES AND
SOME PEAKS OF SUN NOW AND THEN. BEST CHANCE FOR A SUNNY DAY
APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THE TIMING OF THESE DETAILS
6 TO 7 DAYS OUT WITH AN ATYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO IFR CONDITIONS
IN SOUPY MARITIME AIRMASS. CEILINGS DROP TO LIFR THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG GRADUALLY LIFTING ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
FOG...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE MARGINAL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE RAISED SCAS FOR
SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. DID DROP SEAS BELOW WNA GUIDANCE BY A
FOOT OR TWO WHICH STILL LEAVES OUR WATERS IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
949 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NHZ001>003-171400-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
949 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ004-010-013-014-171400-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN CARROLL-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
949 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-171400-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
949 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NHZ005>009-171400-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
949 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
443 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NHZ008-009-162130-
BELKNAP-MERRIMACK-
443 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY AND MERRIMACK
COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALISBURY...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WEBSTER...
ANDOVER...SALISBURY...WEST FRANKLIN...FRANKLIN...BOSCAWEN...
PENACOOK...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...TILTON AND NORTHFIELD THROUGH 530 PM
EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
451 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

MEZ018-NHZ006-009-010-162130-
BELKNAP-INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-STRAFFORD-
451 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...STRAFFORD
COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND CARROLL COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER EAST ALTON...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
SOUTH OF OSSIPEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND MIRROR LAKE...EAST ALTON...ALTON
BAY...WOLFEBORO...NEW DURHAM...BRIDGEWATER...ALTON...WENTWORTH STATE
PARK...MIDDLETON AND BROOKFIELD THROUGH 530 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED.

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             1 NW SPRINGVALE         43.48N 70.82W
07/16/2009  E0.88 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON MAIN STREET NORTHWEST
            OF SPRINGVALE.

0620 PM     HAIL             SPRINGVALE              43.47N 70.80W
07/16/2009  E0.50 INCH       YORK               ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN SPRINGVALE.

&&

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
721 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NHZ003-005-170015-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
721 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GRAFTON COUNTY AROUND 8 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 16 MILES WEST OF PIERMONT...OR ABOUT 14
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARRE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND PIERMONT...HAVERHILL...
LYME...LAKE TARLETON STATE PARK...WENTWORTH...WARREN AND DORCHESTER
THROUGH 830 PM EDT.

IF THE STORM HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER... LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS... EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NHZ003-005-170030-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
752 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GRAFTON COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM
EDT...

AT 752 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF PIERMONT...OR ABOUT 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LYME...HAVERHILL...
PIERMONT...LAKE TARLETON STATE PARK...WOODSTOCK...WENTWORTH...
WARREN...RUMNEY AND ELLSWORTH THROUGH 830 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED.

DAG

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