Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...REACHING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE COOL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE H5 CUTOFF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES E OVER THE FCST AREA TNGT WITH
SFC LOW AND TRAILING FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL KEEP
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHRA, LOW CLOUDS AND F ALONG WITH CHC OF TSTMS
DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER.
GENERALLY USED GFS40, BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND HPC QPF. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS QPF AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM TNGT AND
ALSO INCLUDE OUR SW NH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE H5 CUTOFF CONTINUES TO MOVE E FORCING THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING
FNT TO PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND F WILL LIFT DURING
THE MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PSBL...BUT MOSTLY OVER
MORE WRN AND MT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST...IT WOULD APPEAR
SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
COUPLED WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...ITS QUICKLY REPLACED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT OUTSIDE OF A SHORT BREAK THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE FLOW
PROVIDING A SEASONABLE DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A LINGERING TROUGH AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATING /WITH STRATUS, F AND SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED CHC TSTMS/ WITH SFC LOW AND TRAILING FNT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. SOME IMPROVING WX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR OR PSBL VFR
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS THOUGH STILL THREAT OF SHRA AND
TSTMS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BLO
SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS OVER OUTER MOST WATERS MAY TOUCH 5 FT AT
TIMES AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER SRN WATERS MAY HIT 25 KTS. NO SCA
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONT INTO
THE NGT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREATES CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED
TO 4 AM TNGT AND WILL BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE NH ZONES 5 AND 7 IN
WRN NH. HAVE JUST ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR YORK COUNTY IN
EXTREME SW MAINE TIL 6 PM OR SO FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REPORT OF
SHOULDER WASHOUTS ON SOME ROADS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-NHZ001>004-031945-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-
340 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FOR FRIDAY...REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE IS STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BACK BUILDING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NWS.

MEZ018-023-NHZ005>010-013-014-031945-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
340 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS AREAS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO OVERFLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FOR FRIDAY...REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE IS STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BACK BUILDING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NWS.

ANZ150>154-031945-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
340 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ES

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